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Beware Cambodia’s Europe Sanctions Hype
Beware Cambodia’s Europe Sanctions Hype
Claims of threats to the country’s sovereignty are vastly exaggerated and miss the broader point about how foreign economic relations work.
Op-Ed: The Diplomat
By David Hutt January 30, 2019
For the last 18 months, the Cambodian government has seen foreign conspiracies everywhere it looks. The largest opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), was plotting a coup with American backing, the government says, and was summarily dissolved by the Supreme Court in November 2017 as a result. The CNRP’s president, Kem Sokha, was also arrested for “treason,” though the government gave scant evidence of this.
The list goes on. Two reporters for Radio Free Asia were charged with espionage in late 2017. An Australian filmmaker was convicted as a “spy” for filming a CNRP rally. There are numerous other instances of the government’s myopic mirages of Cambodians, from senior opposition politicians to jaded social media users, who are plotting its downfall.
Amid this, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) – which came in power in 1979 thanks, ironically, largely to the support of the Vietnamese military in ousting the genocidal Khmer Rouge – claims that it is the protector of peace and stability, and the only guarantor of Cambodia’s national sovereignty and independence.
Cambodia’s sovereignty, it says, is now also at stake as the European Union (EU) threatens to remove Cambodia from a preferential trade deal, unless the CPP’s political chokehold loosens. This is important. Under the Everything But Arms (EBA) scheme, which grants most Cambodian exports into Europe duty-free status, Cambodia exported roughly $5.8 billion worth of goods to the EU in 2017, making Europe its largest export market and main purchaser of its most profitable products, garments and footwear.
The government’s response to possible sanctions has oscillated between victimhood and vainglory, between saying Cambodia’s economy won’t be too badly affected by the EBA’s withdrawal and saying that if the EU goes ahead with its threat, it will destroy of livelihoods of millions of Cambodians, mostly the poor. Naturally enough, the government has been steadfast in calling possible sanctions an assault on Cambodia’s national sovereignty and independence.
In reality, however, all the EU is doing is reaffirming the conditions of a benevolent trade scheme that explicitly stipulates standards on democracy, human rights, and a free society as previsions for membership. The Cambodian government doesn’t have to accept the EU’s demands, of course. Brussels isn’t threatening to physically intervene in Cambodia. Indeed, the choice is clear: The Cambodian government can do what it likes, just not if it wants the trade benefits Europe offers — and which happen to prop up Cambodia’s export-driven economy.
Prime Minister Hun Sen has recently responded with his own violent ultimatum. “If you want the opposition dead, just cut it,” he said earlier this month, referring to the EBA’s withdrawal and the death of the CNRP. “If you want the opposition alive, don’t do it and come and hold talks together.” But he stands to lose much more.
Despite the Cambodian government’s perception of hostility, is the EU’s position different from any other trade deal? When China offers Cambodia millions of dollars’ worth of loans (which is has on numerous occasions, including $600 million just last week) they come with conditions, obviously. China doesn’t say that the Cambodian government can set whatever terms it likes and then Beijing will blindly comply. No, Beijing states what amount should be paid back, with how much interest, and when, among many other conditions, some of which are controversial.
And, importantly, in order to meet these repayments, the Cambodian government must change its domestic policy. So that its national debt doesn’t grow too costly and there is enough money to make loan repayments, the government modifies its budget; it must curb spending so that it has enough capital to repay the debt. Is this an affront to Cambodia’s sovereignty? Most people, correctly, think not.
Read More …Cambodia Ruler’s Recipe for Youth Appeal? An 8,900-Pound Rice Cake
By Julia Wallace
Op-Ed: The New York Time
សេចក្តីវង្វេងក្នុងអំណាចនឹងការបោកប្រាស់ប្រជារាស្ត្រតាមរយៈការសម្ញែងនិងអូសទាញយុវជនអោយជ្រុលជ្រើមវត្ថុទាំងនេះដូចជាអន្សមយក្ស ក្រម៉ាយក្ស និងទូកយក្សជាដើម មិនមាននិរន្តរភាពយូរអង្វែងទេ។ កូនៗទាំងអស់ ដែលបានសិក្សារៀនសូត្រពីបច្ចឹមប្រទេស មិនបានយកចំណេះដឹងនិងក្រមសីលធម៍ពីបច្ចឹមប្រទេសមកកែទម្រង់ប្រទេសជាតិខ្លួនឡើយ។ ផ្ទុយទៅវិញម្នាក់ៗគ្មានក្រមសីលធម៍និងគ្មានវិជ្ជាជីវៈក្នុងខ្លួនសោះឡើយ។ កូនមួយជាមេទ័ពរបស់ជាតិ បែរជារំលោភលើក្រិតក្រមទ័ពមកបម្រើនយោបាយបក្សនិងធ្វើខ្លួនឯងជាសេនាធិការនយោបាយ។ កូនម្នាក់ទៀត លើកបន្តុបជាមេសមាគមយុវជន ដែលមិនមានក្រមវិន័យច្បាស់លាស់ថាជាសមាគមក្រៅរដ្ឋាភិបាល(NGO)ឬជាសមាគមអោយគណបក្សពីព្រោះខ្លួនគឺជាតំណាងរាស្ត្រម្នាក់របស់គណបក្ស តែធ្វើខ្លួនជាប្រធានសមាគមក្រៅរដ្ឋាភិបាល។ ដូចដែលពត៍មាននេះបានលំអិត គឺខ្លួនខិតខំសាបព្រោះមនោគមវិជ្ជាលើយុវជនច្រើនជាងបង្កើតគ្រឹះដល់យុវជនសំរាប់ជាធនធានមនុស្សរបស់ជាតិទៅអនាគត។ មិនតែប៉ុណ្ណោះ កូនចៅនិងសាច់ញាតិទាំងអស់គឺជាមេជំនួញនិងប្រធានអង្គការធំៗមានកាកបាទក្រហមជាដើម ដែលប្រការនេះគឺមានទំនាស់ផលប្រយោជន៌(conflict of interest) រំលោភអំណាច(power abuses) និងវិជ្ជាជីវៈជាតិ(national professionalism) ក៏ដូចជាសាបព្រោះគំរូស្មោគគ្រោកដល់ប្រទេសនេះជាខ្លាំង។
PHNOM PENH, Cambodia — First came the 8,900-pound sticky-rice cake, stuffed with mung beans and pork belly, displayed at Angkor Wat and heralded as “officially amazing” by Guinness World Records.
Then, in rapid succession, came a series of record-setting feats: The largest-ever performance of Madison dancing, with 2,015 participants. The world’s longest scarf (3,772 feet), woven over the course of six months and paraded through the streets of Phnom Penh, the Cambodian capital.
And in November, the world’s longest dragon boat (286 feet) was launched into the Mekong River and rowed by 179 oarsmen.
While this streak of oddball achievements might seem unconnected, they are all part of Prime Minister Hun Sen’s push to get young people excited about his aging regime, which he appears to consider essential to maintaining his grip on power.
“The government’s intentions here are rather transparent: They want to create images of visible enthusiasm for the nation and its leadership,” said Katrin Travouillon, a scholar of Cambodian politics at Australian National University.
The initial salvo in this campaign was the rice-and-pork colossus, unveiled at Angkor Wat in 2015, and touted as a modern-day marvel by the authoritarian Mr. Hun Sen, now 66, and his son Hun Many, 36, who hatched the idea as a showcase project for his new pro-government youth group.
Crowds cheered as a representative from Guinness World Records certified that the rice cake would take its place in the record book alongside Angkor Wat, the world’s largest religious structure and a source of enduring national pride.
“I am proud to be a child of Cambodia, and today we have achieved a giant sticky-rice cake, and the world will acknowledge that from now on,” Mr. Hun Many said in a triumphant speech at the event.
Two-thirds of Cambodia’s population is under 30, with no memory of the Khmer Rouge’s bloody rule in the 1970s, or the long years of civil war that followed. Many are weary of their country’s international reputation for genocide and political dysfunction.
So the country’s youth are less susceptible to Mr. Hun Sen’s traditional message that his party’s leaders are national heroes, deserving perpetual legitimacy because of the role they played helping to oust the Khmer Rouge from power in 1979.
The point was driven home to Mr. Hun Sen in emphatic fashion in 2013, after a near loss to an insurgent political party in an election that year. He has spent the past half-decade ramping up his efforts to appeal to the nation’s youth.
“The C.P.P. has to have recognized by now that a national identity forged on victimhood and gratitude is difficult to reconcile with the ideas and aspirations of the younger generation,” said Ms. Travouillon, referring to the ruling Cambodian People’s Party.
The new narrative emphasizes self-sufficiency and national pride, with Mr. Hun Sen publicly thumbing his nose at the Western donors who have poured billions of dollars of aid into the country.
A critical plank of this project has been a revival of the country’s youth corps, headed by Mr. Hun Sen’s youngest and most affable son, Mr. Hun Many. Officially, it is nonpartisan; in practice, its activities support the ruling party.
At a gathering of the youth corps in November, Mr. Hun Many urged participants to continue garnering world records.
Read More …In tirade, Hun Sen calls on Cambodian military to ‘destroy’ opponents threatening government
Op-Ed: Japanese Time AFP-JI, JAN 25, 2019
PHNOM PENH – Cambodia’s strongman leader Hun Sen on Thursday called on his country’s military to “destroy” opponents if the government comes under threat, in a tirade in which he described himself as the “the one who steers the wheel” of the army.
The 66-year-old premier has in recent weeks turned up the rhetoric against the now-dissolved opposition party, the European Union and other critics of his government.
Since his ruling party swept a July election widely considered a sham, the EU has warned it may withdraw its Everything But Arms scheme, which allows Cambodia’s lucrative garment sector duty-free access to its massive market.
In the wake of the move, Hun Sen, a five-star general despite his position as the country’s civilian leader, has been even more outspoken than usual.
“Some people say Hun Sen is consolidating power … that is very correct,” he said in a speech to soldiers marking the 20th anniversary of the infantry — which is headed by his son, Hun Manet.
Hun Sen urged the army to “destroy … revolutions that attempt to topple the legitimate government,” adding he is “not afraid to issue an order” if faced with threats.
“Better to see the death of four or five people rather than the death of tens of thousands and millions,” he said, referring to the lives lost during the ultra-Maoist Khmer Rouge regime, which left a quarter of the population dead.
He also called on the lines of soldiers in front of him to purge their ranks of any troops who oppose the government, saying “they must be destroyed.”
Read More …Weekly News summary on Cambodia for the third week of January 2019
គណៈកម្មាធិការអចិន្ត្រៃយ៍CNRP សម្រេចឱ្យលោក សម រង្ស៊ីវិលចូលកម្ពុជាវិញ
ថ្ងៃចន្ទ ទី២១ ខែមករា ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ នួន បូរិន
Op-Ed: Women Media Center
ភ្នំពេញ៖ គណៈកម្មាធិការអចិន្ត្រៃយ៍នៃអតីតគណបក្សសង្រ្គោះជាតិ បានសម្រេចឱ្យលោក សម រង្ស៊ី វិលចូលកម្ពុជាវិញ ដែលសេចក្ដីសម្រេចនេះ ធ្វើឡើងបន្ទាប់ពីកិច្ចប្រជុំរបស់ថ្នាក់ដឹកនាំនៃអតីតគណបក្សប្រឆាំងជួបប្រជុំគ្នានៅទីក្រុងឡូវែល (Lowell) រដ្ឋម៉ាស្សាឈូសេត (Massachusetts) សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកកាលពីថ្ងៃទី ២១ ខែ មករា ឆ្នាំ២០១៩នេះ ។
គណៈកម្មាធិការអចិន្ត្រៃយ៍នៃបក្សនេះ បានសម្រេចជាឯកឆន្ទដោយសមាសភាព១៥ លើ២៤ លើ់ការវិលចូលកម្ពុជាវិញរបស់លោក សម រង្ស៊ី ដែលបច្ចុប្បន្នជាប្រធានស្ដីទីរបស់គណបក្សសង្រ្គោះជាតិ។
តាមប្រសាសន៍របស់លោកអេងឆៃអ៊ាង អនុប្រធាននៃអតីតគណបក្សសង្រ្គោះជាតិ ចាត់ទុកថាការវិលមកវិញរបស់លោក សម រង្ស៊ី នឹងធ្វើឡើងតាមការសម្រេចនេះ ហើយក្រៅពីនេះ ថ្នាក់ដឹកនាំ នឹងបន្តស្វែងរកកិច្ចអន្តរាគមន៍ថែមទៀតពីសហគមន៍អន្តរជាតិ ដើម្បីគាំទ្រយុទ្ធសាស្រ្តរបស់អតីតគណបក្សសង្រ្គោះជាតិ នៅពេលលោកសមរង្ស៊ីវិលចូលប្រទេសវិញ។
តាមរយៈវីដេអូផ្សាយផ្ទាល់នៅព្រឹកថ្ងៃទី ២១ ខែ មករា ឆ្នាំ ២០១៩ ធ្វើឡើងក្រោយពេលកិច្ចប្រជុំគណៈកម្មារធិការអចិន្ត្រៃយ៍របស់គណបក្សនេះបញ្ជាក់ថា កិច្ចប្រជុំនេះ ធ្វើឡើងមានការចូលរួមពីលោក សម រង្ស៊ី ប្រធានស្ដីទីនៃអតីតគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ មន្ត្រីជាន់ខ្ពស់ ព្រមទាំងសកម្មជនគណបក្សនេះមួយចំនួន ។
លោក អេង ឆៃអៀង ថ្លែងថា ការប្រជុំរបស់គណៈកម្មការអចិន្ត្រៃយ៍ពេញលក្ខណៈថ្ងៃនេះ ជាលើកទីមួយ របស់គណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ ។
លោកថា គណបក្សសង្រ្គោះជាតិ គាំទ្រសហភាពអឺរ៉ុបដាក់ទណ្ឌកម្មមកលើកម្ពុជា ដើម្បីឱ្យមានការអនុវត្តតាមគោលការណ៍លទ្ធិប្រជាធិបតេយ្យនៅកម្ពុជា ។
លោកបន្ថែមថា កិច្ចប្រជុំគណៈកម្មការអចិន្ត្រៃយ៍របស់គណបក្សង្រ្គោះជាតិ ដែលកំពុងរៀបចំការចូលកម្ពុជាវិញរបស់លោក សម រង្ស៊ី ពោលគឺលោកថា គណៈកម្មាធិការអចិន្ត្រៃយ៍នៃគណបក្សនេះ បានអនុម័តកិច្ចការចំនួនប្រាំ ដែលគណបក្សនេះត្រូវធ្វើ ។
អនុប្រធានអតីតគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិរូបនេះ បញ្ជាក់ថា គណបក្សនេះមានមនុស្សសម្រាប់ទទួលខុសត្រូវលើការសម្រេចនូវកិច្ចការទាំង ៥ នេះ ។
យ៉ាងណា ការប្រកាសរៀបចំផែនការនៃការវិលចូលកម្ពុជារបស់លោក សម រង្ស៊ី នេះ សម្ដេច ហ៊ុន សែន នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីកម្ពុជា ធ្លាប់បានអះអាងថា កម្ពុជាត្រៀមកម្លាំងជាស្រេចសម្រាប់ចាប់លោក សម រង្ស៊ី គ្រប់ទីកន្លែង និងគ្រប់ពេលវេលា ។ តែនៅពេលចុងក្រោយនេះ គឺនៅថ្ងៃទី ១៤ មករា សម្ដេចបាន បង្ហើបពីការចង់ចរចាជាមួយសហភាពអឺរ៉ុប ដើម្បីធ្វើឱ្យធូរស្រាល សភាពការណ៏នយោបាយដែលនាំអោយ គណបក្សសង្រ្គោះជាតិ អាចរស់ឡើងវិញ។
ស្របពេលនេះ សកម្មជនរបស់អតីតគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិនៅតាមមូលដ្ឋាន បានបង្ហាញជំហររបស់ខ្លួនពាក់ព័ន្ធនឹងការគាំទ្រលោក សម រង្ស៊ី ធ្វើជាប្រធានស្ដីទីនៃអតីតគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ ហើយក៏ស្វាគមន៍លោកចូលមកកម្ពុជាយ៉ាងឱឡារឹកផងដែរ ។
អ្នកវិភាគថា ប្រសិនបើលោក សម រង្ស៊ី វិលចូលកម្ពុជា អាចនឹងមានច្រកចេញនយោបាយកម្ពុជាឱ្យធូរស្បើយឡើងវិញ ។ លោក សម រង្ស៊ី ធ្លាប់នីរទេសខ្លួនពីការចាប់ខ្លួន ចំនួន៤លើកមកហើយ ។ តែមុនលោក ចូលកម្ពុជា វិញ លោកតែងតែ ទទួលបានការបើកភ្លើងខៀវពីសម្ដេចនាយករដ្ឋមន្រ្តី និងការលើកលែងទោស ដោយព្រះមហាក្សត្រ ។
កាលលោកវិលមកវិញ នៅថ្ងៃទី ១៩ កក្កដា ឆ្នាំ២០១៣ គឺមុនមួយសប្ដាហ៍នៃការបោះឆ្នោតសភានីតិកាលទី៥ គឺជាឆន្ទួៈរបស់លោកផ្ទាល់ តែក្រោយបន្តិចមានការលើកលែងទោស ដោយព្រះមហាក្សត្រ ។ កាលវិលវិញរបស់លោកសមរង្ស៊ីនៅពេលនោះ មានអ្នកគាំទ្រ ជិតមួយលាននាក់មកទទួលលោក ។ តាមអ្នកវិភាគ លោកសមរង្ស៊ី វិលមកវិញ ទំនងលោកចង់បង្ហាញ ឆន្ទៈលោកជាថ្មីទៀតដោយសង្ឃឹមថា នឹងអ្នកគាំទ្រមកទទួលលោកដូចឆ្នាំ២០១៣ ។ តែបែបនេះក្ដី អាជ្ញាធរកម្ពុជា ដូចជាអ្នកនាំពាក្យ ក្រសួងមហាផ្ទៃធ្លាប់ព្រមានការអនុវត្តទោស ចាប់ខ្លួនលោកសមរង្ស៊ី បើអ្នកនយោបាយ ដែលលោកខាងលិចគាំទ្ររូបនេះ វិលចូលកម្ពុជាមែននោះ ៕
អត្តបទដោយ៖ សោម លាភ
Hun Sen turns to China as Cambodia-EU relations cool
Op-Ed: RFI Issued on 20-01-2019 Modified 20-01-2019 to 15:36
Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen has begun a four-day visit to China amidst cooling relations with Brussels. China is a long-term backer of Cambodia, supporting it against Vietnam under Khmer Rouge rule, and more recently it is interested in Cambodia’s strategic position in southeast Asia.
Hun Sen’s arrival in Beijing on Sunday came just days after the EU reinstated “normal” customs duty on rice imports from Cambodia. As of 18 January, it will pay 175 euros per tonne, to be reduced progressively over three years.
Before this weekend, Cambodia benefitted from the EU’s Everything But Arms (EBA) trade scheme, which grants duty-free access to the world’s least developed countries.
Read More …Interview: Senior Pentagon Official Visits Cambodia, Talks Phnom Penh Ties, Indo-Pacific Strategy
Interview: Senior Pentagon Official Visits Cambodia, Talks Phnom Penh Ties, Indo-Pacific Strategy
19 January 2019
“Bilateral defense ties have undergone drastic setbacks over the past few years amid Cambodia’s growing closer security ties with China and political tensions surrounding Cambodia’s general elections last year.”PHNOM PENH —
[Editor’s Note: U.S. Department of Defense Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Southeast Asia Joseph H. Felter visited Cambodia this week to discuss the restoration of military cooperation with Cambodia. Bilateral defense ties have undergone drastic setbacks over the past few years amid Cambodia’s growing closer security ties with China and political tensions surrounding Cambodia’s general elections last year. The senior Pentagon official sat down in Phnom Penh on Wednesday with VOA Khmer to discuss defense ties with Cambodia and the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at dealing with China’s growing influence in the region.]
VOA: Can you tell us about this trip of yours to Cambodia?
Felter: That was special because this is my first trip to Cambodia in this capacity as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for South and Southeast Asia. It was also the first time we had a senior-level defense talk in quite some time in Cambodia – defense dialogue which took place on Tuesday hosted by Gen. Neang Phat [Ministry of Defense secretary of state].
VOA: Who did you meet on the Cambodian side and what issues did you discuss?
Felter: On Tuesday I met with Gen. Neang Phat. He was hosting with his senior members from his staff from the Ministry of Defense and the Cambodian military. Just today, we visited Ream Naval Base and met with Vice Admiral Ouk Seiha, commander of the base, and his staff.
VOA: Can you tell us what issues you raised with Cambodian officials?
Felter: Gen. Neang Phat is the secretary of state of the Ministry of National Defense. As part of the Defense Policy Dialogue, we discussed a range of issues like regional and international security, multilateral and bilateral cooperation. What I thought to be the most important part of our discussion on Tuesday with the Defense Policy Dialogue was mapping out a way forward to improve and enhance military-to-military cooperation between the United States and Cambodia to identify a way we can improve our defense ties and military cooperation.
VOA: We have seen many joint activities have been canceled due to the political situation in Cambodia. Have you brought this into discussions with Cambodian officials to find ways to restart them?
Felter: Yes, we have restarted on some levels. Encouragingly, Cambodia agreed to restart our POW/MIA [Prisoner of War/Missing in Action] cooperation and we find this very encouraging. Later this month we will have a joint on-field activity where we actually go out and do recovery operations of two missing pilots that we are searching for. So we find this very encouraging. Following this, we will be able to enhance our existing state partnership program. This is the partnership program with the Eisenhower National Guard that we will be sending many subject experts here to help the Cambodian military develop their peace-keeping skills. We know that Cambodia will participate in peace-keeping operations and missions around the world so we look forward to that. And there is a way forward beyond that. We will identify a number of activities that we can do to build on this military-to-military cooperation and enhance defense relationship. But to go down that path, we were clear in our discussion on Tuesday with Gen. Neang Phat that a number of things will have to happen on the Cambodian side that has to take initiative in areas of promoting national reconciliation, opening space for civil society and media. Some specific areas down that path include improving bilateral and multilateral exercises, restarting joint combined exchange training which we did in the past, the naval exercise CARAT (Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training). Angkor Sentinel is another example.
VOA: Your call for release the of Kem Sokha, the opposition leader, is met with a negative response from Cambodian officials. What do you think about that?
Read More …Holding Cambodia Accountable for Its Descent into One-Party Rule
Next Steps for Accountability
Given these new developments, the U.S. should take concerted action to hold Hun Sen and other cronies in the Cambodian government to account. The U.S. and 
other key actors in the international community, including the European Union, signaled their disapproval of the dissolution of the opposition and deteriorating conditions in the country. These actions may have been too little too late. A more robust response should have been carried out five years ago after flawed 2013 elections revealed a state of deteriorating democracy in Cambodia.22 The U.S. should take further steps to hold the Cambodian government accountable:
- Name and sanction Hun Sen and other party cadres for the role they play in undermining democracy in Cambodia. The U.S. Treasury Department should use all available tools in its toolbox to freeze and seize assets of known individuals actively obstructing freedom in Cambodia. It should expand its use of existing Global Magnitsky authorities and use any other relevant authorities to place individuals on the SDN list. Such an action would send a clear signal to Hun Sen that the U.S. will intervene in necessary ways to get Cambodia back on the path toward democratic reform.
- Expand existing visa restrictions on Cambodian officials undermining democracy. The U.S. State Department should follow through on promises made in its condemnation of the July 2018 election to expand existing visa restrictions on Cambodian government officials. One potential way to expand these authorities would be to extend visa restrictions unequivocally to family members, especially to Hun Sen’s direct family members. (Current visa restrictions only apply to family members on a case-by-case basis.)23
- Create and convene an emergency meeting of the Cambodia Contact Group comprised of parties to the 1991 Paris Peace Agreement, including the United States, Japan, Indonesia, Australia, the U.K., and France, to monitor and press for democratic reform. Among the purposes of the Paris agreement was to ensure “the right to self-determination of the Cambodian people through free and fair elections” and “assuring protection of human rights.”24 The signatories have a continuing moral obligation in this regard. The contact group should be used to coordinate human rights policies and assistance programs toward Cambodia. In short order, leaders from all of the countries at the foreign-minister level should convene to draw up coordinated plans to hold the Cambodian government accountable and get Cambodia back on the path toward reform.
- Condition assistance to Cambodia on the health of democracy. The U.S. should adopt stringent metrics for determining whether Cambodia is eligible for key assistance programs. Such language could mirror proposed conditions in the 2019 State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations bill.25 Language in the Senate version of the appropriations bill is particularly strong and specific. The U.S. government should conduct a thorough review of all assistance to Cambodia and consider instituting more severe restrictions on aid. Emphasis should be placed on holding the Cambodian government accountable without harming the people themselves.
- Continue to press for the release of Kem Sokha. Every U.S. government statement issued in response to deteriorating conditions in Cambodia should continue to reference Kem Sokha’s imprisonment and request that the Cambodian government release him immediately. The U.S. government should also make clear that there will be additional consequences if Kem Sokha continues to be held. Without a swift, coordinated plan democracy may never be restored in Cambodia. The U.S. and the international community should learn from the mistakes of its limited response after the 2013 election and respond to the 2018 elections in an offensive, rather than defensive, manner. The U.S. should plan for conditions to continue to deteriorate and put in place mechanisms that ensure Hun Sen and his CPP cronies are held to account
Read more details at Asia Foundation…
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As Singapore dredges sand out from beneath Cambodia’s mangrove forests, an ecosystem, a communal way of life, and one woman’s relationship to her beloved home are faced with the threat of erasure.
I remember my first trip to the mangrove forests near the island of Koh Sralau and along Cambodia’s coastline. I had no idea how extensive the mangrove forests were or how spectacular they would be. The forests stretched for miles and miles, carving out small islands, narrow waterways and channels, and ecologically diverse estuaries. I wanted to document the impact of sand dredging on the mangroves and on the lives of the people who live and thrive in these forests and the oceans surrounding them.
For over a decade, the government of Cambodia has granted several private companies concessions to mine these mangrove forests for sand. Each year, millions of metric tons of sand are shipped to Singapore to enlarge this island nation’s land mass, while Cambodia destroys its only natural protection against erosion, rising sea levels, tsunamis, and hurricanes and lays waste to a vital and fragile ecosystem that thousands of families depend on for their livelihood.
Read more details at Emergence Magazine…
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In late July, Cambodia participated (sort of) in the General Election, without having the option to choose the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), which had been dissolved by the Supreme Court last November. The landslide victory by the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) all but assures Prime Minister Hun Sen of near total control of the country. For poll watchers, observers of democracy and human rights activists, the post-mortem reflection on Cambodia’s decline will be painful. But for how long? This brief analysis offers three likely developments in Cambodia that offer both a glimpse of optimism and words of warning.
No. 1: Any imposed sanctions on Cambodia will fail: When the CPP clamped down on political freedoms, Western governments reacted strongly, yet predictably. Economic sanctions were at the top of the list of suggested responses. The United States called forsanctions for Cambodia in January after the arrest of CNRP leader Kem Sokha. Recently, the U.S. and the European Union have called for sanctions on high-ranking officials and more, including thoughts of stripping Cambodia of tax-free access to Western textile markets. If implemented, the loss of revenue could top $650 million. While that wouldcause few reservations for the CPP and Prime Minister Hun Sen, the impact would be felt by up to a million poor Cambodians who work in the textile and garment industries. Sanctions would almost certainly jeopardize efforts to boost national economic standing. The World Bank graduated Cambodia from LDC to lower-middle-income status in 2016and the United Nations has been supporting the country in efforts to move to upper-middle income status by 2030. Threats of sanctions reflect myopic foreign policies that fail to grasp the larger economic and political landscape. While Cambodia will not be able to find alternative Chinese markets for their goods, they will find political solace from Beijing and a new source of legitimate criticism in which to rest short-term political futures. The Americans should learn from the past. The U.S. imposed a trade embargo on Cambodia after the Khmer Rouge gained to power in 1975 and kept them through 1992. Cambodia relied then on China and communist states for their economic survival and it will soon again. Economic sanctions simply don’t work. They rarely have.
No. 2: Cambodia’s civil society will re-emerge: Creeping authoritarianism in the months before the July 2018 election subjected Cambodian civil society groups working in Cambodia to repressive restrictions. Recently, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that the judiciary has been used by the government to tighten controls on civil society groups that the regime saw as a threat, including the closure of some independent media organizations, violent responses to demonstrations, and arbitrary detention and arrest of human rights and political activists. The government passed the Law on Associations and NGOs in 2015, which provided a legal means for threatening civil society groups. However, the cost of repression is often high and civil society often quickly learns to adapt to acts of state violence. One need only look at Cambodia’s neighbor to the west as an example. Thailand imposed a number of repressive laws in the aftermath of the 2014 coup d’etat. Groups of five people were banned from gathering in public, political activists were arrested, and thousands were forced into re-education camps. But, five years after the coup, civil society is showing signs of re-emergence. Unless Hun Sen is willing to use much more repressive means to curtail civil society activities, it is highly likely that CPP dominance will face the same legitimacy challenges Prayut and the NCPO face today. Discounting the power of civil society in Cambodia is to not properly remember its history. Cambodians who faced human rights challenges during the Khmer Rouge eramobilized society and formed the basis for a robust human rights movement–even before the arrival of UNTAC. While it may not emerge in the short-term, it will inevitably happen.
Hun Sen has become staunch puppet of both China and Vietnam
This analysis, Mr. Sophan emphasized on drifting authoritarian of staunch puppet to both China and Vietnam of Prime Minister Hun Sen in which has possessed deadly side-effect like what was happening during the leadership of Pol Pot (1975-1979). Watching the full analysis in youtube.
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Nobody’s Puppet
Prime Minister Hun Sen told an American filmmaker he is a patriot who resists any foreign influences, despite allegations to the contrary from Cambodia’s opposition and analysts.
The entrance to Kratie University flanked with Chinese and Cambodian flags in a photo posted on Facebook last week.
PHNOM PENH, CAMBODIA Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen addresses the politically divisive issue of his historic links with the Communist Party of Vietnam by saying he has never been a “puppet” of Hanoi but is a patriot who always resisted foreign influence on Cambodia.
“A number of people claim I am a person who was installed by Vietnam; they also said I am a puppet of Vietnam,” Hun Sen said in unreleased video footage of an interview with American filmmaker Robert Lieberman for his documentary “Angkor Awakens.”
Hun Sen denied the allegations in the interview.
About this series
This is the first of a multi-part series, based on a rare video interview with Hun Sen by American filmmaker Robert Lieberman for his 2016 documentary “Angkor Awakens.”
“The reality is that Hun Sen belongs to Cambodia [and] Cambodia needs independence,” the prime minister said. “I also hate those who want to have political influence on Cambodia – we don’t accept it.”
Lieberman conducted the September 24, 2015 interview in a New York hotel. VOA recently obtained the interview from the filmmaker.
For decades, the opposition – the once-formidable royalist party FUNCINPEC, former opposition leader Sam Rainsy, and the now-dissolved Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) – have clung to this and other claims in order to undermine Hun Sen’s image and to tap into lingering anti-Vietnamese nationalism in Cambodia.
Many older opposition members come from an alliance of political groups led by then-Prince Norodom Sihanouk that was based on the Thai-Cambodian border. The alliance battled Vietnam during its occupation of Cambodia from 1978, the final days of the Khmer Rougeregime, to 1989.
Campaigning for Cambodia’s July 29 elections started July 7, but with the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) government’s decision to ban its only challenger, the CNRP, last year, the role of anti-Vietnamese politics has become somewhat of a moot point.
Hun Sen has mostly ignored the opposition’s accusations that he is a stooge of Hanoi while never hiding his good relations with Vietnam. These go back to 1977 when he and other Khmer Rouge defectors crossed into Vietnam. They were welcomed and trained to form a new Cambodian government that was installed by Vietnam after it ousted the Khmer Rouge regime in January 1979.
Hun Sen became foreign minister and then prime minister in 1985. He has held onto power since with political maneuvering that has won him democratic elections and by crushing opponents with brazen armed force.
FILE – Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, center right, and his Vietnamese counterpart Nguyen Xuan Phuc, review an honor guard in Hanoi, on Dec. 20, 2016. (Tran Van Minh | AP)
Vietnam backs, not controls, Hun Sen rule
According to a recent publication by Stephen Heder, a respected Cambodia scholar, Hun Sen’s CPP and the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) have long had a “comprehensive relationship” in which they strongly support each other and defend their respective roles from any political challenges.
Hun Sen’s recent banning of the opposition and ongoing crackdown on independent media and civil society would thus have Hanoi’s support, he argues, though that doesn’t mean that Vietnam dominates in Cambodia.
“[K]eeping the CNRP out of power, if necessary by eliminating it from the contest for power, is a strongly shared CPP-CPV common interest that lies at the core of their comprehensive relationship and is most concretely manifest in the relationship between their security forces,” wrote Heder, a research associate at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. “However, this and other CPP-CPV common interests do not add up to Vietnamese domination of Cambodia, as is shown, inter alia, by Cambodia’s refusal to toe Vietnam’s line on the South China Sea,” according to Heder.
In recent years, Hun Sen’s ever tightening embrace with China has been a point of growing media and diplomatic attention. Beijing has provided support and massive loans for his government as it abandoned Western-backed multiparty democracy, while Hun Sen in turn gives diplomatic support for China’s quest for dominance in the South China Sea region.
Demonstrators set fire to a monument marking Cambodian-Vietnamese friendship in Phnom Penh August 30, 1998. (Reuters)
Cambodia’s relations with Western countries have suffered since 2017, with cuts in donor support and the U.S. recently slapping sanctions on some Cambodian officials. In 2017 alone, China accounted for 30 percent of all investment in China, according to The Asean Post.
Ear Sophal, an associate professor at Los Angeles’ Occidental College who has researched Cambodia’s aid dependency and China’s global resource demand, said Hun Sen’s claim of resisting foreign influence was dispelled by the fact that Vietnam and, more recently, China gained control of large swathes of Cambodia’s natural resources, infrastructure and economy at the expense of ordinary Cambodians.
“Cambodia is now seen as having been for rent for a long time,” he said. “The renter is currently China. Perhaps we can say Vietnam owns Cambodia, while China rents Cambodia from Vietnam.”
Sophal added, “But [Hun Sen] does need more friends than only Vietnam and China – he needs to have Western friends too.”
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Cambodian people benefit from CPP’s policies
Summary of Critical News on Cambodia Election 29 July 2018
On July 22, 2018, The Irrawaddy published a news on corruption among the arm-force elites, adding to “Cambodia’s Dirty Dozens” by HRW and recently translated by VOA into Khmer, The Irrawaddy pinpointed the closest link of General Pol Saroeun in millions of mining corporation. Tax evasion and hiding conflict of interests are most important that the General has been conducting in Cambodia.
A tangled web
The Paradise Papers reveal that Uddor Meanchey Mining was set up in the Cayman Islands to play a key role in what could have been a multimillion dollar project to turn Sidara’s coal mine into the main supplier of a planned power plant that would sell electricity to Cambodia, Thailand and back to the mine to keep it running.
The leaked records, reviewed by The Irrawaddy, include emails and documents ranging from share purchase and transfer agreements to certificates of incorporation, directors resolutions, legal opinions, checklists, client lists and invoices — all prepared by or shared with the offshore law firm Appleby.
According to the records, a joint development agreement setting the project in motion was struck in June 2007. The partners included two Cambodian companies, EuroAsia Power and Rexwell Engineering Cambodia; another Caymans firm, AEI Asia; and Rexwell Engineering Limited, registered in Guernsey, a British crown dependency in the English Channel with its own reputation as a tax haven. Appleby was AEI’s legal counsel.
The plans called for Sidara to transfer the license for her coal mine to EuroAsia Power, which she also held shares in, according to the Cambodian Commerce Ministry’s business register. EuroAsia Power would then dig up and ship the coal to a 2,400-MW power plant to be built, owned and operated by Rexwell Engineering Cambodia near the mine.
The two Cambodian companies would operate as subsidiaries of holding companies set up in the Cayman Islands.
The plan was to have all shares in EuroAsia Power transferred to Uddor Meanchey Mining. All shares in Rexwell Engineering Cambodia would be transferred to another company also registered in the Caymans, Uddor Meanchey Power Holdings. Together, the two offshore companies would own the mine and plant.
Among the directors both Uddor Meanchey holding companies appointed was the affiliate of another Guernsey firm, the Sarnia Management Corporation.
On its website, Sarnia Management offers to help “wealthy individuals and their families with flexible and bespoke approaches to protect and manage their assets” with the aid of “jurisdictions and relationships all around the world.” The 2016 Panama Papers, an earlier leak of offshore financial records, named Sarnia Management as an intermediary for more than 200 offshore companies, many of them registered in Niue, a pebble of an island state in the middle of the Pacific Ocean with — like the Caymans — zero tax on offshore earnings.
The records don’t say how much the project partners expected the coal mine and power plant to cost, let alone earn. But they budgeted nearly $10 million for advisors on the power plant alone.
It appears their grand plans soon fell apart, however. In June 2008, only a year after the joint development agreement was signed, AEI Asia told its partners it
would be terminating the deal.
But the two offshore holding companies lived on a while longer. Uddor Meanchey Mining, the one Sidara owned shares in, was dissolved only in 2012, five years after it was registered in the Caymans. Rexwell Engineering Limited was dissolved the same year in Guernsey, and AEI Asia appears to have been wound down as well.
Rexwell Engineering Cambodia and EuroAsia Power no longer appear on the Cambodian Commerce Ministry’s business register.
Continue to read in details by The Irawaddy…
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Cambodia’s government turns the page
A high voter turnout would smooth Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s path to establishing a new authoritarian order. The government has indicated that it is set on achieving a voter turnout of over 80 per cent, which would be far higher than the record low 68 per cent turnout at the last national election in 2013. A high turnout would make the creation of a new national narrative that relegates the CNRP to history a more feasible project. The election could be cited as proof that the nation has come together to express support for the CPP’s resolute derailing of a ‘colour revolution’ in the making.
Yet a high voter turnout is not strictly necessary for the administration’s stability or even likely to impact on its future policy direction. The government’s efforts to ensure a high turnout are in the first place intended to secure the appearance of legitimacy, rather than to win the people’s hearts and minds.
Once the legitimacy of the new government is publicly unchallengeable, there will likely be efforts to genuinely deepen popular support by tying continued CPP rule and its thwarting of alleged (foreign-backed) revolution to national pride. This would go hand-in-hand with the government’s successful efforts to take politics out of the equation in terms of citizens’ thoughts about their futures: having had their political awakening eclipsed, Cambodia’s urban youth are steering away from politics towards business and entrepreneurship instead.
In the final analysis, it is the act of holding an election rather than the turnout that matters. The election will sanction Hun Sen’s continued hold on power, and the government will construe this victory as a new chapter in the country’s political development after the demise of the political opposition. Though there may be a slight softening of political repression after the election, this will likely not be felt so much by the media and civil society. Since the election will mainly serve to establish a definite ‘before’ and ‘after’, the administration will need to defend the ‘new normal’ that the election ushers in. The fact that former CNRP voters have been bypassed by the election leaves too many issues unresolved for the government to soften its stance substantially.
Meanwhile, a militarisation of the National Assembly prepares for military oversight over policy. The government will continue to court key constituencies previously singled out by the CNRP (such as garment workers, civil servants and the armed forces) with favourable economic policies such as incremental salary raises. As for foreign policy, Cambodia will likely continue its roaring pivot to China and Russia, unperturbed by the election’s lack of recognition by the international community (the European Union and the United States have already proclaimed that, without the CNRP’s participation, the election will not be considered legitimate).
The holding of the election and its outcome may be written in stone, but exactly how it fits into the democratic backsliding of the country is still being sculpted. Multi-party elections will by all appearances remain important in Cambodia beyond 2018, but from now on the fireflies (small, insignificant parties that crop up around election time) may buzz more loudly. The notion of multi-party democracy, embodied by the procedural spectacle of elections, has rooted itself deeply in Cambodia.
At the same time, the government intermittently flirts with the notion of one-party rule, such as when Hun Sen publicly reflected in June that one-party states such as China and Vietnam also let the private sector lead national development. After Cambodia’s government turns the page on 29 July, it may increasingly allude to the merits of de facto one-party rule while continuing to fervently protect the formalities of multi-party democracy.
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Cambodia opposition says it has been ‘cut off’ in lead up to election
“We have never banned criticisms but we ban insults and incitements because in an election situation, people need security physically and mentally,” government spokesman Phay Siphan said.
Hun Sen, who has ruled this Southeast Asian nation for over 30 years, has had virtually no opposition since November when the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) was dissolved by the Supreme Court at his government’s request. CNRP was narrowly defeated in a 2013 general election.
Amid condemnation from the international community, CNRP leader Kem Sokha was jailed last year on treason charges and almost 5,000 local authority positions his party had won were handed to members of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP).
“Inside the country, (CNRP members) are completely cut-off from communicating with each other,” 30-year-old Khoeun Virath told Reuters at a cafe in Phnom Penh in what was once his constituency. “There is no leadership structure left.”
Election monitoring groups in Cambodia headed by PM’s son, ‘ambassador’
The National Election Committee (NEC) says it has approved 69 individual foreign observers, but doesn’t provide the number of institutions.
It has registered 107 domestic groups, which will be dominated by the Union of Youth Federations of Cambodia (UYFC), an organization led by Hun Many, the prime minister’s son and a lawmaker for the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP).
A total of 36,000 members of the UYFC had been registered, said Huy Vannak, a member of the youth organization’s central committee and undersecretary of state for the Interior Ministry. The group will contribute almost half of the 77,534 monitors.
Dim Sovannarom, a spokesman for the NEC, confirmed that “tens of thousands” of the UYFC’s members had been ratified as election observers. UYFC provided election monitors in past polls but not on this scale.
Continue to read in details Reuters…
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WHO PROFITS FROM THE DEATH OF CAMBODIA’S DEMOCRACY?
Global Witness, July 20, 2018
These tycoons include:
- Senator Mong Reththy, who Global Witness has linked to a massive illegal logging racket and a sand dredging scandal worth millions of dollars. When allegations surfaced that the senator was also involved in marijuana trafficking, the prime minister said that anyone attempting to arrest him should “wear a steel helmet”.
- Senator Ly Yong Phat, whose sugar company operations led to some of the most violent land grabbing Cambodia has seen this century, with thousands of people thrown off their land. Sugar is just one industry in his huge business portfolio, which spans casinos, the media, infrastructure and more.
- Try Pheap, previously Hun Sen’s personal advisor, who Global Witness found to be at the helm of a multi-million dollar timber smuggling operation that relied on the complicity of officials from government, the military, police and customs. His company was even granted exclusive rights to buy illegal timber that was seized by the authorities, to sell on at a profit.
- Senator Lao Meng Khin, who owns Shukaku, the company behind the infamous Boeung Kak lake evictions. Residents who took a stand have been beaten, arrested and jailed by the authorities. Another of his companies, Pheapimex, holds Cambodia’s biggest land concession, which is 33 times bigger than the legal limit introduced shortly after it was granted.
Continue to read in details at Global Wintess…
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Cambodia’s ruling party expected to sweep ‘sham’ elections
Hang Vitou, president of the Young Analysts Group, said the ruling party’s victory was a sure bet and estimated that the CPP would win 95 to 120 of the 125 seats in the National Assembly.
Still, Hun Sen’s party continued to campaign out of both genuine and insincere fear, Vitou said.
“They are afraid that many people will not go to vote,” he said, estimating that most supporters of the CNRP would not cast ballots.
Without the CNRP, the ruling party needed to give the impression that it feared losing to other parties, Vitou added.
The CPP “pretend to be afraid but in fact they are not afraid because they know the result already,” he said.
Continue to read full story at DPA International…
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Nobody’s Puppet
By Sok Khemara | VOA Khmer ,
Ear Sophal, an associate professor at Los Angeles’ Occidental College who has researched Cambodia’s aid dependency and China’s global resource demand, said Hun Sen’s claim of resisting foreign influence was dispelled by the fact that Vietnam and, more recently, China gained control of large swathes of Cambodia’s natural resources, infrastructure and economy at the expense of ordinary Cambodians.
“Cambodia is now seen as having been for rent for a long time,” he said. “The renter is currently China. Perhaps we can say Vietnam owns Cambodia, while China rents Cambodia from Vietnam.”
Sophal added, “But [Hun Sen] does need more friends than only Vietnam and China – he needs to have Western friends too.”
Continue to read in details VOA Khmer…
Collection of Popular International News on Cambodia’s Fake Election 29 July 2018
View the stream on youtube on “Political Behaviour” of a “Populist Authoritarian” in Cambodia from a series of daily “Political Analysis on Cambodia Election 29 July 2018”
The Japan-China rivalry is playing out in Cambodia’s election
Reported by Nyshka Chandran, July 19, 2018
The United States and the European Union have suspended funding to the National Election Committee, which is meant to be independent, but is widely believed to be controlled by the ruling party. The United Nations, meanwhile, has warned that the election won’t be “genuine” and urged Phnom Penh to lift a ban on the CNRP, which is advising Cambodians to boycott the vote.
Courtesy: The Diplomat
According to CNRP Deputy President Mu Sochua, Tokyo should withdraw its cooperation: “Cambodia needs to move forward, and it can only do so with democracy … that’s why we continue to explain to Japan that the only chance to help Cambodia is to side with democracy.”
The CNRP has tried reaching out to Beijing to explain its argument, but so far has been unsuccessful, Sochua told CNBC over the phone.
“To support Mr. Hun Sen is to support dictatorship and with dictatorship, no government can protect their investments,” she said, adding that “Mr. Hun Sen will keep giving more concessions to Chinese companies, so if Japan wants to protect its investments, it should stay on the side of democracy.”
In recent public comments, Japanese officials have urged Phnom Penh to hold free and fair elections, but didn’t touch on on the government’s human rights violations. Japan’s embassy in Cambodia told CNBC that Tokyo’s assistance was aimed at enhancing the credibility of the electoral process.
“Although Japan supports the technical and logistical aspects of the electoral process, they are not, at least in their own view, necessarily endorsing the legitimacy of the election itself,” echoed Deth Sok Udom, a political science professor at Phnom Penh’s Zaman University.
Ultimately, Abe may find he has to choose between maintaining economic power in Cambodia or upholding democratic standards.
“I suspect that Japan would opt for the first strategy,” Chambers said.
Continue to read more details by CNBC…
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Hun Sen retains his tight grip on Cambodia, and freedoms can wait
Opined by Markus Karbaum, July 19, 2018
However, while the regime uses economic development as the main pillar for its legitimacy, most Cambodians are not part of the ruling CPP patronage network and hardly benefit from the economic rebound. Education and health care in the country are still considerably underdeveloped compared to most of its neighbours.
As pointed out by the Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2018, red tape and nepotism prevail. And Cambodia remains the most corrupt country in Southeast Asia, according to corruption watchdog Transparency International. These conditions contributed to the rise of the opposition CNRP as the regime has, so far, been completely unwilling to transform its governance style.
Instead of protesting against the growing social imbalance and the inefficient public sector, for years Cambodians have been migrating in increasing numbers. This trend has left many unable to find regular work abroad, putting Cambodians at the greatest risk among all Southeast Asians of becoming victims of human trafficking, according to the 2016 Global Slavery Index.
In effect, a population exchange has taken place, as initially Vietnamese and recently more and more Chinese citizens resettle in Cambodia, at least with the goodwill of the Hun Sen government.
Continue to read more details on South China Morning Post…
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What has gone wrong in Cambodia?
Opined by Milton Osborne, July 19, 2018
As David Chandler notes of the political opposition at the time in his A History of Cambodia, “The royalist party soon lost its voice in decision making as well as its freedom of manoeuvre.”
Tired of the problems in Cambodia that had been exercising Western governments for more than a decade, no external players intervened to change the course of events. Similarly, there was never any sign at that stage that Moscow and Beijing had any interest in becoming directly involved in opposing the CPP’s actions.
The complex political history of the period from 1993 to 1997 is well documented in David W. Roberts’ Political Transition in Cambodia: Power, Elitism and Democracy. A disclosure: I reviewed this book for Pacific Affairs in 2001 and commented that it could be read as a justification for Hun Sen’s political behaviour. But I found persuasive, then and now, his endorsement of a view offered by long-term observer of Cambodia Steve Heder that the key players of the period – Sihanouk, Sam Rainsy, and Ranariddh – were all characterised by “deeply illiberal, anti-democratic and anti-pluralist tendencies”.
This lack of action in 1993 was followed by the unwillingness of external players to take any measures that mattered after Hun Sen’s brutal coup de force in July 1997 that saw the CPP overwhelm Prince Ranariddh’s FUNCINPEC.
Roberts tellingly quotes Henry Kissinger as asking rhetorically in 1998, “Why should we [the West] flagellate ourselves for what Cambodians did to each other?” Then UN secretary-general Kofi Annan claimed in 1997, shortly after Hun Sen’s coup, that the UNTAC intervention was “successful in helping to establish national institutions which could lead to stability and economic development”. This latter comment seems to typify the worst kind of readiness of an international civil servant to gloss over the realities of a complex set of circumstances.
The sanctions that followed the events of 1997, which included the US Congress cutting off aid to Cambodia and ASEAN postponing the admission of Cambodia to membership, also marked the beginning of Hun Sen’s ever closer relations with China. Having helped the Khmer Rouge for decades – before, during, and after the period of Pol Pot’s rule – Beijing now changed its policy and embarked on support for Hun Sen and the CPP, which continues to the present day.
It is China’s support that has enabled Hun Sen to weather repeated criticisms of his regime while building up the military strength that ensures his survival. The return for this Chinese largesse has been Cambodia’s reliable support for its foreign policy objectives, most notably in relation to the South China Sea. And Hun Sen has never ceased to contrast Chinese aid offered “without strings” with aid from Western nations tied to conditions.
Analysis of the 2013 national election, in which the CPP’s vote declined significantly, suggested that social media and the voting pattern of younger Cambodians had begun to play an important part in shaping political opinion. These facts might explain the serial courses of action that Hun Sen has taken to neuter any effective political challenge from his opponents, most particularly the dissolution of the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party.
Everything suggests that Hun Sen has set his course and will not be deflected from it. In doing so he is showing himself more inclined to double down on authoritarian action than to reflect his little known chess playing abilities. And there is no reason to think any external player that matters will do anything to divert him from his present policies.
Continue to read The Interpreter…
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Hun Sen is tempting fate in Cambodia’s election
Opined by Thitinan Pongsudhirak, July 17, 2018
Harsher measures from the U.S. and EU could target the Cambodian garment and footwear sector, which constitutes about 80% of the country’s exports. As they represent Cambodia’s largest export markets, the actions of the U.S. and EU have been tempered by concerns over the adverse consequences on Cambodian workers.
But if Hun Sen keeps continues to crack down after the election by further persecuting the opposition and violating human rights, the U.S. and EU might play hardball as well. This is what Sam Rainsy, another CNRP leader who lives in exile, has been urging.
Voter turnout will be critical in the upcoming election. The CNRP is trying to keep voters at home by promoting a “clean-finger” campaign, referring to the fact that ink is applied to the index finger of those who vote. While offering cash inducements to voters, Hun Sen has threatened yet undefined punitive measures for those who refuse to vote. After the election results are announced, China will likely give its automatic blessing, while Western democracies will demur. Japan will face a dilemma after providing election monitoring assistance.
Post-election Cambodia will resemble a simmering powder keg. Social unrest is possible in the aftermath, especially if turnout is low and coercion and violence are rife. Hun Sen is banking on the notion that growth and development can deliver to him elected authoritarian rule despite excluding nearly half of the electorate.
Demographic trends and social media pose a threat to Hun Sen. Two-thirds of Cambodia’s 16 million population are between 15 and 64 years of age, with another 30% under 15. The new generation born after the 1993 election is increasingly connected to social media. Registered Facebook users in Cambodia, for example, have doubled to 6.8 million in just the past two years.
The writing is on the wall for Hun Sen, but his battle-hardened instincts will be to fight tooth and nail to remain in power. Even as he resorts to increased manipulation and repression, Cambodia’s young electorate will become more agitated while Western condemnation intensifies and the political opposition rallies from outside the country.
China therefore should realize that its coddling of Cambodia’s elected dictator does not fit well with Beijing’s aspirations to become a responsible global leader. Hun Sen would be better off reviving the U.N.-led power-sharing plan of 25 years ago which mirrored the country’s popular will. His deeply flawed election this time is likely to set the stage for his demise down the road.
News collection on Cambodia election as of today 12 July 2018
PHNOM PENH, Cambodia — It’s election season in Cambodia, and the fireflies are out.
Loung Chengda, left, of the Khmer Republican Party, and In Chhaom, right, of the Cambodian Light Party, at a June campaign debate with Kin Phea, the moderator. Twenty parties will be on the ballot in the July 29 national election, but Mr. Hun Sen’s is the only one most voters have heard of.CreditAmanda Mustard for The New York Times
Cambodians use that term — “ampil ampik,” in the Khmer language — to refer to little-known political parties that flash onto the scene shortly before an election, then fade back into obscurity.
Twenty parties, some just a few months old, will be on the ballot when national elections are held this month. But most voters will have heard of only one: the Cambodian People’s Party, led by Hun Sen, the authoritarian prime minister.
Mr. Hun Sen has had no viable opposition since November, when the Cambodia National Rescue Party — which almost won the 2013 election — was dissolved by a court packed with his loyalists. The United Nations special rapporteur on Cambodia, Rhona Smith, and numerous rights groups have said the July 29 vote will not be legitimate.
In response, the government points to such obscure entities as the Dharmacracy Party, the Khmer Will Party and the New Light Party (whose platform is to promote “Cambodia’s natural, linguistic and alphabetical wonders”).
Read more on The New York Time…
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The question many Cambodians are asking themselves ahead of this month’s general election is not so much which party to vote for but instead whether they should vote at all.
It’s all but certain that the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) will win the election to be held on July 29 as its only viable rival, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved by court order several months ago.
In November, the Supreme Court ruled to disband the CNRP after it was accused of trying to foment a “color revolution” aimed at toppling Prime Minister Hun Sen’s CPP-led government.
Most of the CNRP’s politicians who were banned from politics for five years on court order have since fled the country while its president, Kem Sokha, languishes in prison on what are widely viewed as trumped up treason charges.
Now, CNRP officials have from exile called on Cambodian voters to boycott the upcoming election in a “clean finger” campaign, reference to the indelible ink used at ballot stations to indicate a person has voted. The goal, party members say, is to show that the upcoming election is a sham.
Originally intended to prevent the same person from voting multiple times, inked fingers have now come to connote a different form of electoral fraud in Cambodia, say analysts.
Read more on Asia Times…
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The emails were believable. An interview request for a member of the opposition. An article sent to a government official. A conference invitation for a journalist. But each one a hacking attempt designed to lure the recipient.
Over the past few months, numerous rights groups, reporters and Cambodia observers have reported seeing a large spike in phishing messages and hacking attempts. Now a report from a leading U.S. cybersecurity firm suggests such cases may be linked to a large scale operation from a Chinese cyber espionage group seeking to monitor the country’s upcoming and contentious July 29 national elections.
In a report released Wednesday, FireEye details how a well-known Chinese hacking group called TEMP.Periscope targeted opposition figures, government departments, rights defenders and media outlets. Among those compromised by the attacks was the Cambodian National Election Commission, Interior Ministry, diplomats and opposition lawmakers. In the past, the group has gone after corporations, academics and defense contractors in the U.S., Europe, Taiwan and Hong Kong. FireEye, which has been studying TEMP.Periscope since 2013, said there can be little doubt they are working on behalf of the Chinese government.
“The evidence we have gets us as far as information gathering, it definitely shows that China is very interested in the upcoming elections,” Benjamin Read, Senior Manager for Cyber Espionage Analysis at FireEye, tells TIME.
China is a close ally of Cambodia, and has invested billions in infrastructure, development, military support and aid. “Any upheaval in Cambodia would be an issue for China considering their close partnership,” says Read, pointing to the recent election in Malaysia — in which the surprise outcome has caused a headache for Beijing with billions of dollars in infrastructure and construction contracts now being reevaluated.
Such an outcome is unlikely in Cambodia, where the government last year dissolved its only viable political competition, the Cambodia National Rescue Party, and imprisoned its leader Kem Sokha. But the surveillance nevertheless highlights China’s deep interest in the inner workings of both friends and foes.
Read more on Time…
វិភាគសេដ្ឋកិច្ចពីវិនិយោគចិននៅសកម្ពុជា / Chinese investments in Cambodia
Op-Ed: Phnom Penh Post
៣០ មេសា ២០១៨ / 30 April 2018
វិភាគសេដ្ឋកិច្ចពីវិនិយោគចិន នៅសកម្ពុជា / Chinese investments in Cambodia (*)
គេថាវិនិយោគចិន នៅប្រទេសកម្ពុជា ឈរលើកិច្ចសន្យា « ឈ្នះ ឈ្នះ » តែមានភាគីមួយទៀត ដែលទទួលការបង់ខាត គឺប្រជារាស្ត្រខ្មែរ
ថ្មីៗនេះ លោកនាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន បានលើកតម្កើងវិនិយោគចិន នៅប្រទេសកម្ពុជា ថាមានប្រយោជន៍ធំធេងណាស់ សម្រាប់ស្រុកយើង។ តែខ្ញុំសូមធ្វើការកត់សម្គាល់ដូចតទៅ។
The entrance to Kratie University flanked with Chinese and Cambodian flags in a photo posted on Facebook last week.
បញ្ហាចម្បង ទាក់ទងវិនិយោគចិន នៅប្រទេសកម្ពុជា គឺការខ្វះតម្លាភាព ដែលនាំមកនូវអំពើពុករលួយ ទាំងខាងភាគីវិនិយោគិនចិន ទាំងខាងភាគីមន្ត្រីជាន់ខ្ពស់រដ្ឋាភិបាល។ គេថាវិនិយោគទាំងនេះ ឈរលើកិច្ចសន្យា « ឈ្នះ ឈ្នះ » សម្រាប់ភាគីទាំងពីរ តែមានភាគីមួយទៀត ដែលទទួលការបង់ខាត គឺប្រជារាស្ត្រខ្មែរ ដែលមិនមានសិទ្ធិសម្តែងមតិ។
សព្វដង វិនិយោគពីបរទេស តែងតែផ្តល់ការងារឲ្យប្រជាពលរដ្ឋក្នុងស្រុក តែចំពោះវិនិយោគចិន នៅប្រទេសកម្ពុជាវិញ គ្មានផ្តល់ការងារអ្វី ឲ្យប្រជាពលរដ្ឋខ្មែរទេ ពីព្រោះវិនិយោគិនចិន គេនាំពលកររបស់គេ មកពីប្រទេសចិន ហើយប្រាក់ខែបើកឲ្យពលករបរទេសទាំងនោះ ត្រូវផ្ទេរទៅប្រទេសចិនវិញ។
សព្វដងទៀត មានការផ្ទេរបច្ចេកវិទ្យា ពីប្រទេសជឿនលឿន មកប្រទេសអន់ថយ តាមរយៈវិនិយោគ ពីប្រទេសមួយទៅប្រទេសមួយ តែចំពោះវិនិយោគចិន នៅកម្ពុជា គឺគ្មានការផ្ទេរបច្ចេកវិទ្យាអ្វីមកស្រុកយើងទេ ពីព្រោះពួកចិន គេធ្វើអ្វីៗទាំងអស់តែខ្លួនគេ ហើយគេនឹងវិលត្រឡប់ទៅស្រុកគេវិញ ក្រោយពីបញ្ចប់ការដ្ឋានរបស់គេនៅស្រុកយើង។
ពេលដែលពលករទាំងអស់ ត្រូវបាននាំមកពីប្រទេសចិន ពលករខ្មែរ មិនមានឱកាសទទួលបានការបណ្តុះបណ្តាលវិជ្ជាជីវៈអ្វីទេ ហើយស្រុកយើងក៏គ្មានឱកាសអភិវឌ្ឍធនធានមនុស្សរបស់យើងឡើយ។ លោក ហ៊ុន សែន លើកឡើងថា វិនិយោគិនចិន ត្រូវតែនាំពលកររបស់គេ ពីស្រុកចិនមកប្រទេសកម្ពុជា ពីព្រោះស្រុកយើងខ្វះធនធានមនុស្ស ហើយមិនអាចរកពលករមានជំនាញវិជ្ជាជីវៈបានទេ។ ការលើកឡើងរបស់លោក ហ៊ុន សែន បែបនេះ មានន័យថាគាត់ចង់ឲ្យប្រទេសកម្ពុជា នៅតែអន់ថយជាងគេជានិច្ចកាល ដោយស្ថិតក្នុងភាពល្ងង់ខ្លៅ ភាពក្រីក្រ និងភាពរំពឹងលើគេជានិច្ចកាល។
យើងកត់សម្គាល់ថែមទៀតថា ប្រទេសចិន ផ្តល់ជំនួយឲ្យយើងដៃម្ខាង តែដៃម្ខាងទៀតគេប្រមូលពីយើងវិញយ៉ាងសន្ធឹកសន្ធាប់ តាមរយៈសម្បទានដីធ្លី សម្បទានព្រៃឈើ និងសម្បទានរ៉ែ និងតាមរយៈកិច្ចសន្យាចំណេញកប់ក្តោង ដោយគ្មានហានិភ័យអ្វី ដោយសារមានការធានា មិនឲ្យបង់ខាត ពីរដ្ឋាភិបាលកម្ពុជា ដូចជាក្នុងវិស័យវារីអគ្គិសនី ជាដើម។
ចំពោះទេសចរណ៍ មកពីប្រទេសចិនវិញ ក៏គេមិនត្រូវការពលករ និងអាជីវករខ្មែរដែរ ពីព្រោះក្រុមហ៊ុនចិន ជាអ្នកចាត់ចែងអ្វីៗទាំងអស់ សម្រាប់ទេសចរណ៍ចិន ដែលមកទស្សនាប្រទេសកម្ពុជា។ ដូច្នេះ ប្រជារាស្ត្រខ្មែរ មិនចំណេញអ្វីពីទេសចរណ៍ចិនទេ ដែលមកស្រុកយើងភ្លូកទឹកភ្លូកដី តែប្រទេសកម្ពុជាទទួលការបង់ខាត ផ្នែកបរិស្ថាន និងសង្គម ដោយសារទេសចរណ៍បែបនេះ។
លោក ហ៊ុន សែន គាត់ត្រូវការការគាំទ្រពីប្រទេសចិន ដើម្បីជួយការពាររបបផ្តាច់ការ និងពុករលួយរបស់គាត់ ពីព្រោះប្រទេសចិន មិនគិតពីប្រជាធិបតេយ្យ សិទ្ធិមនុស្ស និងអភិបាលកិច្ចល្អទេ នៅស្រុកណាដែលគេមកវិនិយោគ។ តែចំពោះលោក ហ៊ុន សែន គាត់បង្ហាញពីកង្វះខាត ក្នុងការយល់ដឹងក្នុងវិស័យសេដ្ឋកិច្ច ហើយគាត់ក៏មិនអើពើ ពីផលប្រយោជន៍ប្រទេសកម្ពុជាឡើយ។
សម រង្ស៊ី
ប្រធានចលនាសង្គ្រោះជាតិ
(*) The Phnom Penh Post, 30 April 2018
Chinese investments in Cambodia are win-win-lose, and guess who’s the loser
By Sam Rainsy
Editor,
Following The Post’s article titled Hun Sen comes to China’s defence, praises investment and development aid (April 26), I would like to make the following remarks.
The main problem with Chinese investments is their complete lack of transparency, which favours corruption among both Chinese investors and Cambodian government officials. These investments generally consist of “win-win-lose” arrangements, with the Cambodian people being the silent loser.
Why There Won’t Be a Cambodian Spring This Election Year
Why There Won’t Be a Cambodian Spring This Election Year
Courtesy: The Diplomat
Despite being well versed in the chaotic metropolises of South East Asia, I still found myself surprised by the coarseness of Cambodia’s capital city when I visited for the first time last month. Half-finished construction sites spill out into the roads, depriving pedestrians of footpaths and adding to Phnom Penh’s not-quite-finished character. Yet for the capital of a country that is now just three months away from a general election, there is a notable absence of the usual broad-faced men bearing grins and upwards pointing thumbs that you might expect to see postered to the sides of buildings and billboards. You may, in fact, be forgiven for not knowing that there is an upcoming election at all.
Cambodia’s leader, Hun Sen, is the world’s longest-serving prime minister having held the position since 1985. Rising to power as a battalion commander under the Khmer Rouge, he defected to Vietnam and became a leader of the rebellion against the regime before being appointed as deputy prime minister in the Vietnamese-installed government in 1979. Since then, Hun Sen has refused to relinquish power, and despite losing a UN-sponsored election in 1993 he went on to lead a successful coup against his co-prime minister, cementing his position at the head of the ever-incumbent Cambodian People’s Party (CPP). His reign has been characterized by the stifling of democracy and unabashed brutalizing of the opposition.
At the head of a government widely accepted as one of the world’s most openly corrupt, Hun Sen’s immediate family is known to have registered interests in over 114 domestic private companies, holding total or substantial control in 90 percent of them. These sectors span the breadth of the economy, from construction to hospitality, telecoms to media, and finance to mining. His relatives also hold key positions within the government and the military, increasingly embedding themselves into the country’s elite apparatus.
In the four years since there has been an undeniable systematic dismantling of the opposition party, and an intensified purge of government critics. With the assistance of the state’s judiciary, the party’s new leader Kem Sohka was arrested for treason in September 2017, while over 100 members of the CNRP’s leadership have been banned from participating in politics for the next five years.The only serious contender to have challenged the rule of the CPP was the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). Formed in a merger of two opposition parties and united under prominent reform campaigner Sam Rainsy, the party won a 44 percent share of the vote in the 2013 general election, nearly topping the CPP’s 49 percent. Despite Human Rights Watch supporting the CNRP’s accusations of electoral fraud, citing the registering of voters in multiple provinces and the issuing of fake election documents by the CPP, the incumbent government denied calls for an independent review into the election.
In November 2017, the Supreme Court officially disbanded the CNRP, eradicating the only serious contender in the upcoming general election and making the CPP’s landslide victory inevitable. The day was branded “The Death of Democracy” by the Phnom Penh Post, one of the only remaining English-language publication not closed down in recent years.
Sam Rainsy, who has been in exile since 2016 after being charged with defamation for accusing Hun Sen’s government of murdering the high-profile political activist Kem Ley, has since set up the offshoot Cambodia National Rescue Movement (CNRM) in an attempt to pull together an opposition ahead of the election. However, rather than uniting the opposition, this has further fractured relations with some adamant members of the disbanded CNRP who are opposed to the abandonment of their party. Many more are refusing to publicly support the new party in fear that their association could lead to their arrest if this party is targeted by the CPP too.
In this climate of intense frustration some commentators are questioning whether Hun Sen has gone too far, and in fact sealed his own fate by inciting a public uprising against the CPP. While others have underlined the claim that only 30 percent of the junior members of the armed forces now genuinely support the regime.
Yet while it is true that frustration is growing among Cambodian pro-democracy activists, there is no “Cambodian Spring” in the offing. Hun Sen’s position in the country has never been stronger; with no organized opposition to challenge him and near total de facto control of the judiciary, military, police force, and press.
I spoke to Dr. Sorpong Peou, a Cambodian-born Canadian professor at Ryerson University and an expert on politics and security in Cambodia, about the country’s immediate political outlook.
“My prediction is that anti-government protests and demonstrations are likely to develop as the July elections are fast approaching, but I don’t know if they will be sustained. The opposition, in my opinion, has weakened and will not be resilient. [Whereas] the CPP-led government is likely to use force to crush or thwart any movements seeking to challenge its power.”
When asked if he believed that Hun Sen could maintain power for the next decade, as he has stated his intention to, he told me there was no doubt about it. “Hun Sen cannot afford to lose because losing in Cambodia can mean the end, if not death.”
“The lack of legitimate state institutions has left Cambodia more or less in the Hobbesian ‘state of nature’, and the politics of survival remains intense. Thus, I don’t expect Hun Sen and his CPP to go down without a fight to the death. For me, this is the great Cambodian tragedy.”
Hun Sen has never been investigated by the International Criminal Court for his complicity in the Khmer Rouge regime and does not intend to stand trial either for the politically-motivated murders alleged against him since he has been in power.
CNRP CNRM or Others in a Concerted Effort to Bring Back Normality to Cambodia
Weekly Analysis:
But pragmatists have advised that you couldn’t expect the jailed President to revoke your democratic CNRP back to live. The jailed President has no freedom to exercise his free will as well as to undertake a routine leadership to oversee his over 3 million members organization effectively. It has no proof that a jailed person could be an effective leader for any active large political organization. There must be a big misunderstanding in this matter, and the sympathizers have likely played into Hun Sen’s trap.
What would I begin with for the current political affairs of Cambodia? At all times, it is a challenging moment for major scholars to analyse the Cambodia political situation in a structural manner. Cambodia politics, during these decades, has been unpredictable, uncertain and risky. Hun Sen has become a pivotal actor to all these unpredictable occurrences and he has boldly coped all those occurrences. In July 1997, the bloody coup detat was exploded within his controllable magnitude, but the anchoring force at the border by his opponent led by Nhek Bun Chay was believed to pressure him to return back to conduct a participatory election. Thus, this happened only after he was sure to ably cope the election outcome. This end of 2017, the preparedness for Senate election in February 25, 2018 and the national election in July 29, 2018, Hun Sen has been pragmatic on his predictable election outcome as if he allowed the existing rule of the game (existing NEC and CNRP), he would loss the power. Hun Sen has learnt to be a King in all circumstances (from his own speech and it is true from our own observation through his lifetime of politician career; this is different from other leaders who have stepped down when time is suitable for them to step down for the sake of collective/national interest although they still see chance to win over the game). This time, Hun Sen has made a decisive moving-ahead by jailing Kem Sokha (president of the CNRP), dissolving the CNRP, taking away all seats of both 55 law-makers and 5007 commune/quarter counsellors elected by the people, and banning all 118 high ranking officers of the CNRP not to participate in Cambodia politics for 5 years. This political manoeuvring has noted as a cold blood coup to renew his power. Hun Sen has been the longest premier serving in post by a facade democratic election, and he has boasted to stay tenure for another ten years.
There are speculations that Hun Sen will turn Cambodia into North Korea model in the next five years under modern stage of the international stresses. He will not oblige to follow democratic model well-known among Western states, or he will imitate governance model of China or Vietnam. He will practice facade-democracy through a disenfranchised and controllable election mechanism to ensure his tangible political projection.
Pragmatically, the strongest Hun Sen doesn’t exactly reflect its reality, the strongest Hun Sen is because the weakness of his rivalry (opposition). As said, during
the largest crowd of rally against election rigs in 2013 by the CNRP, the negotiation with Hun Sen seems achieved trivial things such as the new creation of NEC structure and the TV Channel, while the key components for power-based sustainability such as the reform or change of judiciary system/institution as well as the neutral arm-force, neutral policemen, and neutral public servants etc. were not prevailed. After agreeing to resume the national assembly and endorse Hun Sen as Premier in his fifth mandate, there were notably conflict in leadership skills within the CNRP as the top leader attempted “culture of dialogue” but individual law-maker attempted border scheme campaign against the vision of dialogue, or between President and Vice President, they both was likely not in the same page in directing their grand plan and their men. There were vacuum allowing external force to slow down or to obstruct the party’s works. There were encouragement for CNRP to work hard and to work smart indispensably after entering the Assembly. Actually, there were opportunities to change from within by working at the Assembly of those 55 law-makers, but their activities were active at the grassroots level more than in the top level of government. The chronic obstacles of democracy such as the court, the non-neutral national police institution, the systemic corruption, the unequal economic growth, the ineffective public servants, and the non-neutral army etc. were not actively engaged by or at least the CNRP’s working group did actively engage in policy changes of those shortcoming entities to survive itself or to assimilate them with their value for their long term “survival of the fittest” political arena.
This is perhaps one of the reasons in emerging Cambodia National Rescue Movement (CNRM) to replace some of the dysfunctional ability of this party. In practice, there are active unity and passive unity, active bonding and passive bonding, active splitting and passive splitting. This time, CNRP has been entrapped into a Khmer-pot (ក្អម), so if you don’t split your force (បំបែកំឡាំង) from such Khmer-pot, you will die effortlessly. Therefore, all splitting forces must come with pragmatic and concrete action-plans, vision, mission statement, and predictable outcomes etc.
Present Cambodia’s Conundrum and Its Foreseeable Future
Preamble:
This upcoming election of Senate in February 25, 2018 and national election in July 29, 2018 are very questionable on its legitimacy as the key voters of largest opposition party CNRP (tantalizing of 5007 councillors) have been redistributed to other parties especially to the government-led party CPP and the dissolution as well as the banning of 118 core members of the CNRP. The excuse of law ratifying to redistributing seats (both law-makers in the parliament and the lower governance apparatus commune-Sangkat councillors) has been outraged by both the providence of such law amending and nationwide errs. More than that, the international community has ever come to shoulder to respond to this systemic crackdown on the state of democracy and human rights brokering since the first election in 1993 sponsored by the UNTAC.
The strength on his political manoeuvring of Prime Minister Hun Sen through the backing of China and the resistance to reinstating back to the original course from both Cambodian nationals and international community are likely not in equilibrium. Thus, pragmatists see that this imbalance will lead to an uncontested solution.
The Hun Sen’s Strength:
Prime Minister Hun Sen has been known for his relentless and successful manoeuvring the tactic of “divide and conquer” on his several political contenders. With the increasing of votes towards the opposition CNRP in both national election 2013 and commune-Sangkat election in 2017, the preparedness and implementation on the dissolution of this largest opposition party has been undertaken. There were no doubts on the amendments by single party (CPP) on several laws such as NGOs laws (LANGO), law of labours unions, law of the press and media (sic), and three times adjustment of the law on political party etc. Mixing his repeated warnings on war if he lost the election to these efforts on law amendments to sideline his opponent is a concerted effort to substantiate the facade of democracy in Cambodia.
With current state of international competitiveness, China publicly announced its support of the dissolution of the CNRP as well as other jailing and threats on the opposition members. The narrative of colour revolution has been made and publicized at large to apply the course of jailing Kem Sokha, president of the CNRP, and the judgement of the Supreme Court to dissolve the CNRP with the conviction of colour revolution to topple a legitimate government.
In hand, Hun Sen has comforted his zone through high ranking positioning of arm-force from his children, to relatives, and to closest loyalists, on key responsibility such as the bodyguard units, the intelligent police, the national police, the military police, and the army. The coffer’s pockets are full of loyal Oknha (entitlement of Lord to cementing patronage beaurocrats of oligarchy) and the key position of treasurers (money’s controllers) of his trust. The governance system of spreading his loyalists to key positions such as the Royal Palace, the Assembly, the Senate, and the Judiciary, the state’s human rights body, the state’s anti-corruption unit, etc., is tangible.
The Convincible Strength:
The dissolution of the CNRP and the redistributing all those seats is comfortably with no distress of reprisal is known as the physical “winning” of the battle while the destruction and violation on the rule of law as well as the disrespectful to the half-nationwide-population voice of the Cambodian people is the moral “defeating” of the war. The domestic outcry of the people levelling at the state of silence is one of the testimonies of their political maturity. They are silently ready to exercise their voice through secrete ballots. The international community representing over 70% of the earth surface has come out with concrete actions and action-plans to respond to Hun Sen’s manoeuvring.
Led by the US and EU, the sanction on individuals of the powerful elites of Hun Sen’s administration is not sufficient. The effort to call for the reconvening of the signatory countries of the Paris Peace Agreements is on pending. It is no doubt that H.E. Pan Sosak, Minister of Commerce, wrote a letter to Prime Minister Hun Sen to tell him the truth on the impact of trade loss sanctioned by the US and EU. It is no doubt that H.E. Tuy Ry, Cambodian commissioner to the United Nations, wrote letter to the Minister of Foreign Affairs on an invitation to join the discussion among permanent member states led by the US and EU at the United Nations this December 19, 2017. It is no doubt that Prime Minister Hun Sen has come out with different scenarios for the reviving of the opposition party by suggesting them to create a new party.
For trade alone, Cambodia can face trade loss up to 75% for its national revenue earned from trade. This huge wealth of exporting major garment and agriculture products to the market in the US and EU have fed the government, the mouth of Oknhas, as well as the hundred thousands garment workers. There are some explanations to seek substitutes to these losses, but in fact, the pain of individual’s visa ban and asset freezing widening to this trade sanctioning etc., is not yet substantial to the loss of political recognition and legitimacy at the present as well as the future.
At least, one year length that UNs postponed the seat of Cambodia during the coupe detat in 1997. When the political normality was turned to its course, the seat was returned. This time, the crackdown on democracy is tantamount that no one can underestimate the severe reprisal if political normality is not turned to its level.
Domestically, Cambodian population at large has emerged the youngest bulk representing 65% with under 35 years of age. This generation is self-determination seekers, rebellious to entrenching injustice, and championing of the political maturity. Nevertheless, Cambodians overseas who have been known for their advocacy and campaign for the Paris Peace Accords in 1991, have ever come together in the largest force to pushing for democracy improvement in Cambodia. On the International Human Rights Day 10 December 2017, they have travelled from different corners of North America in unison to the White House in Washington DC. to voice their concerns. Thousands of signing of Cambodian people signed www.change.org for the reviving of the Paris Peace Agreements. Legally, political, and economical, Cambodia government is an entity of binding with international community standard, this entity is not solely under Cambodia constitution, but no one can manipulate it for the sake of personal wealth and power at all.
Cambodia’s opposition movement seeks US help amid crackdown
Cambodia’s opposition movement seeks US help amid crackdown
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen arrives at Clark International Airport, north of Manila, Philippines Saturday, Nov. 11, 2017. Hun Sen is one of more than a dozen leaders who will be attending the 31st ASEAN Summit and Related Summits in Manila. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)
WASHINGTON (AP) — Cambodia’s leader is destroying a political opposition movement that threatens his three-decade grip on power and he’s accusing America of plotting his downfall. An influential opposition figure is in Washington is wondering if she’ll get any help at all.
Prime Minister Hun Sen talks about nefarious U.S. designs to unseat him, but the United States rejects that claim as baseless. Experts say his attacks are driven by a fear of losing elections next year.
Opposition leader Kem Sokha is imprisoned and his party seems likely to be dissolved this week by Cambodia’s highest court. His daughter, a spokeswoman for the Cambodia National Rescue Party, is urging President Donald Trump’s administration to act quickly and try to salvage democracy in the Southeast Asian nation.
“Hun Sen thinks the world is not paying attention and that nobody is prepared to do anything about it,” said Monovithya Kem, who wants the United States to impose sanctions on Cambodian officials complicit in the crackdown.
Monovithya said about 20 lawmakers, out of the party’s 55 in the 123-member National Assembly, have fled Cambodia since Kem Sokha was arrested Sept. 3 and charged with treason, which carries a sentence of up to 30 years in prison. Monovithya and her sister also fled, fearing arrest. The government accuses them of conspiring with the CIA.
It’s not unusual for Cambodian politicians to demonize the U.S. There’s fertile history to draw on.
U.S. secret bombing during the Vietnam War is often blamed for the rise of the Khmer Rouge, whose late 1970s genocidal rule killed one-quarter of the Cambodian population. After a Vietnamese invasion toppled the Khmer Rouge, the U.S. voted for a coalition including the former rulers to retain Cambodia’s U.N. seat instead of giving it to the Vietnam-backed government.
Since Cambodia emerged from civil war in the 1990s, however, the U.S. has been a more benign presence. Since 1991, it has provided $1.8 billion in aid for development and democracy promotion and $60 million in military assistance, U.S. government data show. Hun Sen’s eldest son was even educated at West Point.
But in recent years, the Cambodian leader’s relationship with Washington has become increasingly acrimonious. In that time, Cambodia’s reliance on nearby China, which avoids criticizing others’ human rights records, has intensified.
“U.S. influence in Cambodia is at an all-time low,” said John Sifton, Asia advocacy director for Human Rights Watch in Washington.
He said the U.S. retains some power and leverage, particularly through voting rights at the World Bank and Asian Development Bank that provide aid for the impoverished country. America also is a big market for Cambodian textiles. Still, U.S. officials aren’t sure they can change Hun Sen’s calculus.
“Authoritarians don’t give up power easily,” Sifton said. “He still has China. He still has Vietnam. He still has ASEAN members who will stand beside him.” There are 10 members in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose leaders Trump was to meet at a summit in the Philippines.
Through 32 years in power, Hun Sen has mastered how to sideline political opponents. In 1997, he ousted a co-prime minister in a bloody coup. In recent years, he’s used Cambodia’s pliant judicial system.
Cambodia’s Political Dilemma and Possible Exit Path
The Chronology
After a single party of government-led party CPP decisively amended the latest laws on political party, Hun Sen has already gained his “upper hand” to fit his “game changer” of win-win strategy to defeat his contender (CNRP) before the elections arrived. Hun Sen has conducted whatsoever he could to gain upper hand: to manipulate the durable national institutions into his personalized institutions, to uphold his patronage networks by monopolizing national wealth, and to tame Cambodian people by using the politics of fear and partial court. The national constitution has been wrongly trimmed to maximize his upper-hand approach at all cost.
Will CNRP be dissolved by the amended laws?
The amended laws are just the back-up plan to advocate party defectors. Primarily, Hun Sen frightened the voters by declaring war if his party lost in the election. But such action will place him at the worst risk. This time, the amended laws with the lawsuit filing at the supreme court to dissolve the CNRP will place him at the worst risk as well if it is put into action. Then, the new dating of Senate election to February 25, 2018, has entertained his intuitive belief in dividing and weakening the CNRP.
Hun Sen is facing with the power of common sense
Hun Sen might be good at the actual battle field, but his latest tactic under the growing well-informed citizens of Cambodia and within the democratic ballots field, he has already succumbed to self-defeat by distancing himself from “people’s common sense”. Those tactics against the people’s common senses are following: working “to cut head to fit hat” in applying the laws of the empire, manipulating the garment workers, dumping the voters by welcoming or advocating defecting representations (law-maker and Sangkat/commune council) to his party, violating the international treaties, and throat-cutting approach towards Cambodia’s growing economy by confronting with the EU and America.
Hun Sen is at high risk
Different from coup-detat in 1997, Hun Sen has run out effective means to attract international community to believe in his “game changer” supremacy. This time, CNRP and their leaders will not continue to commit self-suicidal by accepting any condition to become an alibi, or a power etiquette for the power holder, or bringing national fate into so-called national reconciliation. CNRP and their leaders didn’t shed a fire, thus those who shed fire must be accountable. If Kem Sokha is not released, and the CNRP will be dissolved on November 12, 2017 accordingly, those CNRP law-makers and Sangkat/commune councils are still there because they are elected by the people, and the CNRP and their supporters have more leverage to appeal to the UNs, the signatory countries of the Paris Peace Agreement, and the international community, to step in so that Senate election in February 25, 2018 and the national election in July 29, 2018, are meaningful. More than this, when CNRP is dissolved, there will be no government. No other country in this world dare to recognize such “illegitimate” group of power brokers. As said, the international community will encourage the King to play his role to declare the dissolution of the national assembly paving way to conduct an election for a new “legitimate” government.
The concerted efforts
The supporters of CPP have likely lost sight to uphold the principles while a “game changer” has already achieved his “upper hand” vision. But those supporters are remained intact to challenge a “game changer” to exercise such game easily. The 55 law-makers of CNRP must work in team with achievable plans to outreach to all democratic countries, the UNs, and the international community both domestic and abroad. The 5007 Sangkat/commune councils are active to daily engage with neighbours and those in need at the grassroots levels. The CNRP must uphold “consensus” work procedures of decision-making as supremacy within the party without granting power to any individual in decision-making so that they will face with political of fears and threat. The mandated November 9, 2017, by the America will be effectively taken action. The EU’s economy sanctions announced on Tuesday, October 31, 2017, has been clear enough. Many private talks and measures by the concerned countries have been already put in place. China’s advisers of central communist party’s Politburo already wrote on its media outlet in warning the risky move of Hun Sen if he dare to dissolve the CNRP.
EU MPs threaten Cambodia aid and trade over crackdown
Op-Ed: Reuters
EU MPs threaten Cambodia aid and trade over crackdown
EU Statement on current crisis of political climate in Cambodia
PHNOM PENH (Reuters) – A European Parliament delegation warned on Tuesday that Cambodia could face EU action over aid and vital trade preferences if the human rights situation worsened further.
FILE PHOTO: Cambodia’s opposition leader and President of the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) Kem Sokha talks during an interview with Reuters in Prey Veng province, Cambodia May 28, 2017. REUTERS/Samrang Pring/File Photo
The delegation’s statement was the strongest threat of action from representatives of any Western donors since the arrest of opposition leader Kem Sokha in September and steps by Prime Minister Hun Sen’s government to dissolve his Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP).
The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Delegation of the European Parliament called for the release of Kem Sokha and an end to the process of dissolving his party.
“The government of Cambodia should be aware that the European Parliament is a co-legislator for budgetary and trade issues,” said the delegation’s chairman, Werner Langen, a member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats party.
“A serious deterioration of the human rights situation might have implications for development assistance programs and trade preferences,” he said after a two-day visit.
Huy Vannak, undersecretary of state at Cambodia’s Interior Ministry, said the European Parliament should keep trade and politics separate.
“Some members of the European Parliament should distinguish between political agenda and trade for the interests of the people. We need to create many choices rather than make the interests of the people a hostage of a political agenda,” Huy Vannak told Reuters.
“Without economic prosperity, democracy will just be an illusion,” he said.
European Union countries accounted for around 40 percent of Cambodia’s exports in 2016. Its exports, mostly of clothing, get fully duty free access under a scheme to help the world’s poorest countries.
Western diplomats say in private it would be difficult to secure EU agreement for limiting trade preferences because of the harm it could do to some 700,000 low-wage garment workers employed in Cambodian factories.
Police officers stand guard at the Supreme Court of Phnom Penh, Cambodia, October 31, 2017. REUTERS/Samrang Pring
CRACKDOWN
The European Union and its member states also gave Cambodia nearly $170 million in development aid last year, according to Cambodian government figures.
Political turmoil may threaten Cambodia’s hard-won economic achievements
Thank you very much Mr. Weijia for your well-balanced argument between modern political economy and pure win-win one man show strategy of Prime Minister Hun Sen. As said, China has claimed her achievements are through China’s model of political economy, corruption-free state-of-the-arts, and global-oriented approach leadership of President Xi. All these are non-existence in Cambodia PM leadership, which shall pose great risk for China in its global role achievement as articulated by President Xi if China has privately or publicly backed the current moves of Cambodia government.
Op-Ed: Global Times
Political turmoil may threaten Cambodia’s hard-won economic achievements
Arts Exchange Program between VN, Cambodia and Lao on theme of Military Cooperation. (Photo Courtesy monoroom.com dated October 25, 2017 or http://hrkhnews.com/?p=7419)
A close watch needs to be kept on the tense political situation in Cambodia, which is a popular destination for Chinese investors. The Southeast Asian country has experienced strong economic growth in recent years, but its success may be threatened by possible political turmoil.On Friday, the IMF gave a positive appraisal of Cambodia’s economy, saying it is expected to grow by 6.9 percent this year. Having graduated from a low-income to a lower middle-income country, Cambodia seems confident in transforming itself into an upper middle-income economy by 2030 and a high-income country by 2050. Domestic and foreign observers alike have optimistic views of the nation’s economy.
However, rapid economic growth tells only part of the story; the other part is domestic political uncertainty.
According to the Financial Times, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen warned earlier this year that his country could descend into civil war. Over the past few weeks, tension escalated after Sam Rainsy, the former president of Cambodia’s opposition, was arrested and charged with treason for allegedly conspiring with a foreign power to overthrow the Hun Sen administration.
Political stability is a necessity for a nation to prosper and develop, especially a country like Cambodia, whose economy has traditionally been supported by tourism and garment exports.
Letting the situation in Cambodian deteriorate would scare off foreign tourists and investors and deal a heavy blow to the local economy.
Last week, the US renewed a call for the Hun Sen administration to release the country’s opposition leaders.
Cambodia-US relations are strained, and the possibility of US sanctions against garment imports from Cambodia cannot be ruled out. Criticism from Western countries may cast shadows over Cambodia’s economic future.
Appropriate solutions are needed to avoid a further escalation of tension and even conflict. Economic growth in recent years was a hard-won achievement for Cambodia and the growth trend should not be interrupted by the country’s rising political tension. People should become more aware of the importance of political stability to protect the results of economic development.
As an important economic partner of Cambodia, China will pay close attention to the situation in the Southeast Asian country and willingly provide the necessary help.
The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn
Sweden threatens to review engagement with Cambodia
Sweden threatens to review engagement with Cambodia
Op-Ed: Reuters
PHNOM PENH (Reuters) – Sweden said on Thursday it would rethink its engagement with Cambodia if the main opposition party is dissolved, in the strongest warning yet from a Western aid donor.
The government has filed a suit to dissolve the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) after charging its leader, Kem Sokha, with treason. He rejected the charge as politically motivated.
Excluding the opposition party would allow veteran Prime Minister Hun Sen a clear field to extend his 32-year rule at the next election in 2018.
Swedish Human Rights Ambassador Annika Ben David told a news conference at the end of a five-day visit the banning of the opposition party could have consequences.
“Should the Cambodia National Rescue Party be dissolved, this will force my government to rethink our engagement Cambodia,” she said.
Other Western countries have condemned the arrest of Kem Sokha and warned against dissolving the CNRP, but have not raised the possibility of action.
David did not elaborate on what Sweden might do.
Government spokesman Phay Siphan rejected David’s comments as interference in Cambodia’s sovereignty and an insult.
“This is language that the royal government can’t accept,” Phay Siphan told Reuters. “This is an invasion and insult to the Cambodian national institution.”
Sweden had given Cambodia an estimated $100 million in aid over five years, David said. According to Cambodia’s database of donors, Sweden ranked third for aid among individual EU member states last year after France and Germany.
David also pointed out that Swedish fashion group H&M was an important buyer of clothes from Cambodia’s garment factories – the country’s main export earner.
Hun Sen’s ruling Cambodia People’s Party (CPP) has launched a crackdown on its critics, including politicians, independent media and non-government groups.
This week, parliament changed the law so that the CNRP’s seats can be shared amongst other parties if it is dissolved.
While Western governments have for years tried to put pressure on Cambodia over the stifling of democracy and the trampling of human rights, China has become an increasingly important ally and business partner.
Should Western countries impose sanctions on Cambodia?
Op-Ed: Asia Times
Cambodian politics reached a new boiling point with the arrest of the opposition leader last week. Kem Sokha was handcuffed in the middle of the night in his house and accused of “treason” by the government.
Foreign governments have reacted to the arrest, and members of the opposition have called for them to take action against the Cambodian government. The questions now are these: What actions should the West take? And how tough should these actions be?
Political conditions in Cambodia have worsened in recent years, most notably after local-government elections in June this year. The 2013 national elections and the June 2017 local-government elections threatened the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), which has been in power since the fall of the Khmer Rouge regime in 1979.
Among a range of actions to weaken the opposition, in July this year, despite a boycott by the opposition, the CPP passed an amendment to the Law on Political Parties. The amendment allowed the government to ban convicted political leaders from running for political office, while the parties run by them would be disbanded altogether. Sam Rainsy, the former opposition leader, had to resign from his Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) to save it from being dissolved.
Last week, the CPP regime jailed Kem Sokha, Sam Rainsy’s successor, and charged him with colluding with a foreign power to topple the government. The accusation appears to be based mainly on a speech Kem Sokha made in 2013 to his supporters in Australia. At that time, he had boasted of the support he receives from Americans to advance his political career and unseat the CPP.
His arrest followed the government’s expulsion of a US-based non-governmental organization and the closures of The Cambodia Daily and local radio stations linked to Radio Free Asia and the Voice of America.
A number of foreign governments reacted promptly to the arrest. Australia and Japan expressed their concerns about the deteriorating political conditions in Cambodia and suggested that the CCP-led regime maintain a political environment favorable for a free and fair national election, to be held next July.
The US and the European Union went further, calling for the immediate release of Kem Sokha, but stopped short of announcing punitive measures if the government ignored their call.
China, however, opted not to pressure the Cambodian government and promised to stand by its side.
US Ambassador to Cambodia William Heidt speaks during a press conference at the US Embassy in Phnom Penh on September 12, 2017, sharply denying ‘extraordinary accusations’ that the US was involved in a plot to overthrown the government.
Members of the opposition are calling for the international community to take tough action against the Cambodian government, but have fallen short of prescribing specific actions. Nevertheless, it is customary for the opposition to seek international intervention when their political fortunes are under threat from the CPP-led government. Sam Rainsy called on the West to cut off aid and impose economic sanctions on Cambodia on many occasions in the past. Similar appealshave been made now in the aftermath of the arrest of Kem Sokha.
The question now is this: Should the West impose sanctions on Cambodia to restore political order?
Some countries, such as Japan, are certainly facing a dilemma, and their policy options are limited. The West and for that matter Cambodian citizens have to make a hard choice between accepting the status quo and potentially pushing Cambodia into China’s complete sphere of influence and wiping out the gains made in the past two decades in terms of economic development and democratization.
Slashing aid and imposing economic sanctions would definitely undermine Western countries’ past efforts to contribute to the development of Cambodia, which have been significant over the past two decades. They contributed to peace-building processes that culminated in the October 1991 Paris Peace Accords. They aided the reconstruction of postwar Cambodia, channeling significant development assistance to the country. (Western aid accounted for more than 60% of the total in 2015.)
The United States’ and the EU’s special preferential trade agreements helped Cambodia develop its export sector, particularly the garment and footwear sector and related industries, which account for about 80% of the country’s exports.
The US extended Most Favored Nation status to Cambodia in 1996 and the Generalized System of Preferences last year. The EU extended its Everything but Arms scheme to the country in the early 2000s. Cambodia exported more than 60% of its products to the US and European markets in 2016.
Cambodia has also benefited from the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, but its exports to China accounted for only 6% of the total last year.
Garment workers walk in front of factories in Phnom Penh in October 2015 after government promises of wage increases fell short of their demands.
Thanks in part to Western assistance, the Cambodian economy has grown extraordinarily well over the past decades, averaging 7% per year since 1993 and helping poverty to fall more than 1 percentage point per year on average since 2003. Cambodia graduated from the status of a Least Developed Country in 2015.
In the event of Western economic sanctions, parts of the Cambodian export sector are most likely to collapse. In the short to medium terms, Cambodia is unlikely to be able to count on China to fill the vacuum left by the US and the EU, given that the two Asian countries are competitors in the global garment and footwear market.