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The coronavirus butterfly effect: Six predictions for a new world order
The coronavirus butterfly effect: Six predictions for a new world order
The world may soon pass “peak virus.” But true recovery will take years—and the ripple effects will be seismic. Parag Khanna and Karan Khemka forecast the aftershocks.
BY PARAG KHANNA AND KARAN KHEMKA8 MINUTE READ
In chaos theory, the butterfly effect describes a small change that can have massive, unpredictable consequences. An insect flaps its wings and, weeks later, causes a tornado.
The coronavirus is more like an earthquake, with aftershocks that will permanently reshape the world.
If we are lucky, the world will pass “peak virus” within the next six months. But the economy, governments, and social institutions will take years to recover in the best-case scenario. Indeed, rather than even speak of “recovery,” which implies a return to how things were, it would be wise to project what new direction civilization will take. That too will be a bumpy ride. The next 3-5 years will remind us that COVID-19 was the lightning before the thunder.
Of course, it is difficult to draw straight lines between cause and effect. With the benefit of hindsight, we can trace how the Treaty of Versailles and the Great Depression enabled the rise of Hitler. But in the hyperconnected world of today, dense global networks enable butterfly effects to ripple and amplify far more rapidly.
Can we forward-engineer probable scenarios emerging from the consequences of today’s pandemic? Given how stretched our institutions are in coping with the current crisis, few tasks could be more urgent in helping us prepare for the future. It is easy to predict further doom after a devastating phenomenon such as the coronavirus. Reality will likely turn out differently—and it certainly can.
THE LONG EMERGENCY
The most obvious tail-risk scenario to consider is that the numerous existing strains of COVID-19 encircling the world continue to ravage societies and the search for a vaccine proves more elusive, extending beyond the currently forecast 12-18 months. Countries that have accepted the rhythms of shelter-in-place policies and deployed contact-tracing technologies may be able to isolate pockets of exposure through strict quarantines, but poor and densely populated countries will remain especially unprepared and vulnerable. The aggregate death toll crosses from under 100,000 at present to nearly one million or more. At the moment, all countries are self-isolating, but in this trajectory, some countries would be indefinitely ring-fenced from physical exchange with others. Domestically, they face a painful choice between reopening their economies and exposing their populations to further infection.
Continue readingTranslation of Truth and Protection of Coronavirus named COVID-19 infectious disease
Original source for your reference: CambodianInterpreter.Org
Coronaviruses (CoV) are a family of viruses that cause sicknesses like the common cold, as well as more severe diseases, such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain – one that hasn’t previously been recognized in humans.
Coronaviruses (CoV) គឺជាអំបូរនៃវីរុសដែលបង្ករឱ្យមានជំងឺដូចជាផ្តាសាយធម្មតាក៏ដូចជាជំងឺធ្ងន់ធ្ងរជាច្រើនទៀត ដូចគ្នានឹងរោគសញ្ញាផ្លូវដង្ហើមមជ្ឈិមបូព៌ានិងរោគសញ្ញាផ្លូវដង្ហើមធ្ងន់ធ្ងរ។ មេរោគប្រលោមលោកថ្មីគឺជាវីរុសថ្មីមួយដែលមិនត្រូវបានគេទទួលស្គាល់នៅក្នុងខ្លួនមនុស្សទេពីមុនមក។
Coronaviruses cause diseases in mammals and birds. A zoonotic virus is one that is transmitted between animals and people. When a virus circulating in animal populations infects people, this is termed a “spillover event”.
ជំងឺ Coronaviruses បង្កជំងឺក្នុងថនិកសត្វនិងបក្សី។ វីរុសហ្សូណូទិកគឺជាវីរុសមួយដែលឆ្លងរវាងសត្វនិងមនុស្ស។ នៅពេលវីរុសដែលរាលដាលនៅក្នុងហ្វូងសត្វ ហើយឆ្លងទៅមនុស្សនេះត្រូវបានគេហៅថា“ព្រឹត្តិការណ៍លេចធ្លាយ” ។
How does CoVID-19 affect the body? តើកូវិដ១៩ ប៉ះពាល់ដល់រាងកាយយ៉ាងដូចម្តេច?
The virus is fitted with protein spikes sticking out of the envelope that forms the surface and houses a core of genetic material. Any virus that enters your body looks for cells with compatible receptors – ones that allow it to invade the cell. Once they find the right cell, they enter and use the cell’s replication machinery to create copies of themselves. It is likely that COVID-19 uses the same receptor as SARS – found in both lungs and small intestines.
វីរុសនេះត្រូវបានបំពាក់ដោយជាតិប្រូតេអ៊ីនដែលស្ថិតជាប់នឹងផ្នែកខាងក្រៅដែលបង្កើតជាផ្ទៃនិងជាស្នូលនៃសារធាតុហ្សែន។ វីរុសណាមួយដែលចូលក្នុងខ្លួនរបស់អ្នក វាស្វែងរកកោសិកាដែលមានឧបករណ៍ទទួលសញ្ញាដែលត្រូវគ្នា – ដែលអនុញ្ញាតឱ្យវាលុកលុយចូលក្នុងកោសិកាបាន។ នៅពេលដែលពួកគេរកឃើញកោសិកាត្រឹមត្រូវ ពួកគេចូលហើយប្រើគ្រឿងម៉ាស៊ីនចម្លងរបស់កោសិកាដើម្បីបង្កើតច្បាប់ចម្លងដោយខ្លួនឯង។ វាទំនងដូចជាកូវិដ-១៩ ប្រើឧបករណ៍ទទួលសញ្ញាដូចគ្នានឹងសារ – រកឃើញទាំងក្នុងសួតនិងពោះវៀនតូច។
It is thought that CoVID-19 shares many similarities with SARS, which has three phases of attack: viral replication, hyper-reactivity of the immune system, and finally pulmonary destruction. Early on in infection, the coronavirus invades two types of cells in the lungs – mucus and cilia cells. Mucus keeps your lungs from drying out and protects them from pathogens. Cilia beat the mucus towards the exterior of your body, clearing debris – including viruses! – out of your lungs. Cilia cells were the preferred hosts of SARS-CoV, and are likely the preferred hosts of the new coronavirus. When these cells die, they slough off into your airways, filling them with debris and fluid. Symptoms include a fever, cough, and breathing difficulties. Many of those infected get pneumonia in both their lungs.
វាត្រូវបានគេគិតថាកូវិត១៩ ចែករំលែកភាពស្រដៀងគ្នាជាច្រើនជាមួយរោគសារដែលមានការវាយប្រហារបីដំណាក់កាលគឺ៖ ការបង្កើតច្បាប់ចម្លងវីរុស ប្រតិកម្មខ្ពស់ទៅលើប្រព័ន្ធភាពស៊ាំ និងទីបំផុតការបំផ្លាញសួត។ នៅពេលមានការឆ្លងមេរោគ វីរុសកូរ៉ូណាបានរាតត្បាតកោសិកាពីរប្រភេទនៅក្នុងសួត – កោសិកាជាតិរំអិលនិងកោសិការោមល្អិតឆ្មាឈ្មោះស៊ីលីយ៉ា។ កោសិកាជាតិរំអិលការពារសួតរបស់អ្នកពីការស្ងួតនិងការពារភ្នាក់ងារជំងឺ។ កោសិការោមល្អិតឆ្មាឬស៊ីលីយ៉ារុញច្រានជាតិទឹករំអិលឆ្ពោះទៅផ្នែកខាងក្រៅនៃរាងកាយរបស់អ្នកដើម្បីសំអាតកំទេចកំទី – រួមទាំងមេរោគចេញពីសួតរបស់អ្នក។ កោសិការរោមល្អិតឆ្មាគឺជាម្ចាស់ផ្ទះដែលមេរោគសារនិងកូវិដចូលចិត្តជាងគេ ហើយទំនងជាម្ចាស់ផ្ទះដែលចូលចិត្តទទួលយកវីរុសថ្មី។ នៅពេលកោសិកាទាំងនេះងាប់ពួកវានឹងរអិលចូលទៅក្នុងផ្លូវដង្ហើមរបស់អ្នកដោយបំពេញវាដោយកំទេចកំទីនិងសារធាតុរាវ។ រោគសញ្ញារួមមានគ្រុនក្តៅ ក្អក និងពិបាកដកដង្ហើម។ ភាគច្រើននៃអ្នកដែលឆ្លងជំងឺនេះមានជំងឺរលាកសួតទាំងពីររបស់ពួកគេ។
Continue readingCNRP Statement on Hun Sen dictatorship leadership has stagnated Cambodia democracy and economy
February 27, 2020
The Cambodian People do not allow Hun Sen to destroy the Cambodian economy.
After the abolition of Cambodia democracy, Hun Sen has been in the process of destroying the economy. The destruction of both: the political democracy and the national economy in which these two factors are original interdependent, Hun Sen has a single reason is the desire to maintain his personal lifetime power.
Two grave mistakes Hun Sen has made are political democracy and national economy. The most serious political mistake in this case is the dissolution of Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) in 2017 aiming to preempt the CNRP from participating in the 2018 national election. The dissolution of the CNRP is a killing of democracy because without having a strong oposition party, democracy is totally dead. Everyone knows that without CNRP as opposition party, no other party is credible. Hun Sen’s ultimate decision to dissolve CNRP has triggered the international community especially the European Union reacted swiftly as EU has essential role and obligation to safeguard democracy and human rights in Cambodia. One of the EU’s urgent reactions is to suspend the trade preference named “everything but arm” (EBA) scheme in which has resulted in grave economic slow-down in Cambodia. Another mistake of Hun Sen is to associate with China and be fully dependent on China’s supports of economy development while EU and USA have sanctioned or have prepared more severe economy and trade sanctions over current Cambodia regime.
The latest is a similar case of the Pol Pot whose leadership was wholly depending on China to contain his grip on power, under the Khmer Rouge regime, in the 1970s.
For the economy mistake, Hun Sen has undertaken it since 25 years ago. This failure is caused by Hun Sen’s ignorance and uneducated mindset which has not based on skill, experience and vision to handle the national economy development.
Hun Sen has lacked self-education and does not understand the investment of providing education to the people for nation development, Hun Sen has spoiled the Cambodia education system with disorganized human resource management and low quality standard comparing to neighboring countries. Hun Sen has relied on garment factory economy solely which requires low techinical skill and workers receive low wage as well. More than this, Hun Sen has made garment industry exported to free world countries only such as Europe and USA by relying on monopolitic raw materials imported from China. Right now, both exporting destination countries and key source of raw materials have been facing uncertainty and shortfall impacted by the suspension of EBA and COVID-19 infection. The Coronavirus infection has troubled badly on China’s industry which has curtailed supply chain to Cambodia.
With above policy failure, Cambodia’s garment industry shall face severe crisis causing unemployment and livelihood of millions of Cambodian workers and their families.
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