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But pragmatists have advised that you couldn’t expect the jailed President to revoke your democratic CNRP back to live. The jailed President has no freedom to exercise his free will as well as to undertake a routine leadership to oversee his over 3 million members organization effectively. It has no proof that a jailed person could be an effective leader for any active large political organization. There must be a big misunderstanding in this matter, and the sympathizers have likely played into Hun Sen’s trap.
What would I begin with for the current political affairs of Cambodia? At all times, it is a challenging moment for major scholars to analyse the Cambodia political situation in a structural manner. Cambodia politics, during these decades, has been unpredictable, uncertain and risky. Hun Sen has become a pivotal actor to all these unpredictable occurrences and he has boldly coped all those occurrences. In July 1997, the bloody coup detat was exploded within his controllable magnitude, but the anchoring force at the border by his opponent led by Nhek Bun Chay was believed to pressure him to return back to conduct a participatory election. Thus, this happened only after he was sure to ably cope the election outcome. This end of 2017, the preparedness for Senate election in February 25, 2018 and the national election in July 29, 2018, Hun Sen has been pragmatic on his predictable election outcome as if he allowed the existing rule of the game (existing NEC and CNRP), he would loss the power. Hun Sen has learnt to be a King in all circumstances (from his own speech and it is true from our own observation through his lifetime of politician career; this is different from other leaders who have stepped down when time is suitable for them to step down for the sake of collective/national interest although they still see chance to win over the game). This time, Hun Sen has made a decisive moving-ahead by jailing Kem Sokha (president of the CNRP), dissolving the CNRP, taking away all seats of both 55 law-makers and 5007 commune/quarter counsellors elected by the people, and banning all 118 high ranking officers of the CNRP not to participate in Cambodia politics for 5 years. This political manoeuvring has noted as a cold blood coup to renew his power. Hun Sen has been the longest premier serving in post by a facade democratic election, and he has boasted to stay tenure for another ten years.
There are speculations that Hun Sen will turn Cambodia into North Korea model in the next five years under modern stage of the international stresses. He will not oblige to follow democratic model well-known among Western states, or he will imitate governance model of China or Vietnam. He will practice facade-democracy through a disenfranchised and controllable election mechanism to ensure his tangible political projection.
Pragmatically, the strongest Hun Sen doesn’t exactly reflect its reality, the strongest Hun Sen is because the weakness of his rivalry (opposition). As said, during the largest crowd of rally against election rigs in 2013 by the CNRP, the negotiation with Hun Sen seems achieved trivial things such as the new creation of NEC structure and the TV Channel, while the key components for power-based sustainability such as the reform or change of judiciary system/institution as well as the neutral arm-force, neutral policemen, and neutral public servants etc. were not prevailed. After agreeing to resume the national assembly and endorse Hun Sen as Premier in his fifth mandate, there were notably conflict in leadership skills within the CNRP as the top leader attempted “culture of dialogue” but individual law-maker attempted border scheme campaign against the vision of dialogue, or between President and Vice President, they both was likely not in the same page in directing their grand plan and their men. There were vacuum allowing external force to slow down or to obstruct the party’s works. There were encouragement for CNRP to work hard and to work smart indispensably after entering the Assembly. Actually, there were opportunities to change from within by working at the Assembly of those 55 law-makers, but their activities were active at the grassroots level more than in the top level of government. The chronic obstacles of democracy such as the court, the non-neutral national police institution, the systemic corruption, the unequal economic growth, the ineffective public servants, and the non-neutral army etc. were not actively engaged by or at least the CNRP’s working group did actively engage in policy changes of those shortcoming entities to survive itself or to assimilate them with their value for their long term “survival of the fittest” political arena.
This is perhaps one of the reasons in emerging Cambodia National Rescue Movement (CNRM) to replace some of the dysfunctional ability of this party. In practice, there are active unity and passive unity, active bonding and passive bonding, active splitting and passive splitting. This time, CNRP has been entrapped into a Khmer-pot (ក្អម), so if you don’t split your force (បំបែកំឡាំង) from such Khmer-pot, you will die effortlessly. Therefore, all splitting forces must come with pragmatic and concrete action-plans, vision, mission statement, and predictable outcomes etc.
After a single party of government-led party CPP decisively amended the latest laws on political party, Hun Sen has already gained his “upper hand” to fit his “game changer” of win-win strategy to defeat his contender (CNRP) before the elections arrived. Hun Sen has conducted whatsoever he could to gain upper hand: to manipulate the durable national institutions into his personalized institutions, to uphold his patronage networks by monopolizing national wealth, and to tame Cambodian people by using the politics of fear and partial court. The national constitution has been wrongly trimmed to maximize his upper-hand approach at all cost.
Will CNRP be dissolved by the amended laws?
The amended laws are just the back-up plan to advocate party defectors. Primarily, Hun Sen frightened the voters by declaring war if his party lost in the election. But such action will place him at the worst risk. This time, the amended laws with the lawsuit filing at the supreme court to dissolve the CNRP will place him at the worst risk as well if it is put into action. Then, the new dating of Senate election to February 25, 2018, has entertained his intuitive belief in dividing and weakening the CNRP.
Hun Sen is facing with the power of common sense
Hun Sen might be good at the actual battle field, but his latest tactic under the growing well-informed citizens of Cambodia and within the democratic ballots field, he has already succumbed to self-defeat by distancing himself from “people’s common sense”. Those tactics against the people’s common senses are following: working “to cut head to fit hat” in applying the laws of the empire, manipulating the garment workers, dumping the voters by welcoming or advocating defecting representations (law-maker and Sangkat/commune council) to his party, violating the international treaties, and throat-cutting approach towards Cambodia’s growing economy by confronting with the EU and America.
Hun Sen is at high risk
Different from coup-detat in 1997, Hun Sen has run out effective means to attract international community to believe in his “game changer” supremacy. This time, CNRP and their leaders will not continue to commit self-suicidal by accepting any condition to become an alibi, or a power etiquette for the power holder, or bringing national fate into so-called national reconciliation. CNRP and their leaders didn’t shed a fire, thus those who shed fire must be accountable. If Kem Sokha is not released, and the CNRP will be dissolved on November 12, 2017 accordingly, those CNRP law-makers and Sangkat/commune councils are still there because they are elected by the people, and the CNRP and their supporters have more leverage to appeal to the UNs, the signatory countries of the Paris Peace Agreement, and the international community, to step in so that Senate election in February 25, 2018 and the national election in July 29, 2018, are meaningful. More than this, when CNRP is dissolved, there will be no government. No other country in this world dare to recognize such “illegitimate” group of power brokers. As said, the international community will encourage the King to play his role to declare the dissolution of the national assembly paving way to conduct an election for a new “legitimate” government.
The concerted efforts
The supporters of CPP have likely lost sight to uphold the principles while a “game changer” has already achieved his “upper hand” vision. But those supporters are remained intact to challenge a “game changer” to exercise such game easily. The 55 law-makers of CNRP must work in team with achievable plans to outreach to all democratic countries, the UNs, and the international community both domestic and abroad. The 5007 Sangkat/commune councils are active to daily engage with neighbours and those in need at the grassroots levels. The CNRP must uphold “consensus” work procedures of decision-making as supremacy within the party without granting power to any individual in decision-making so that they will face with political of fears and threat. The mandated November 9, 2017, by the America will be effectively taken action. The EU’s economy sanctions announced on Tuesday, October 31, 2017, has been clear enough. Many private talks and measures by the concerned countries have been already put in place. China’s advisers of central communist party’s Politburo already wrote on its media outlet in warning the risky move of Hun Sen if he dare to dissolve the CNRP.
ហ៊ុន សែន ប្រើត្រីបកទប់ទល់សេះទឹមសម រង្ស៊ី និងកឹម សុខា
Mon, 26 January 2015
Phnom Penh Post (Post Staff)
ដោយសារមួយរយៈចុងក្រោយនេះ ពុំសូវមានអ្នកវិភាគនយោបាយតាមក្រឡាអុក ដូចមុននោះ ក្នុងនាមខ្ញុំជាអ្នកចេះលេងអុកខ្លះដែរ សូមចូលខ្លួនបន្តវិភាគពីរៀមច្បងមុនៗ ដើម្បីចែករំលែក គ្រាន់ទុកជាពុទ្ធិ ហើយដើម្បីឆ្លើយតបទៅនឹងប្រសាសន៍លោកនាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី បានប្រតិកម្មកាលពីថ្ងៃទី ១៩ មករា នៅខេត្តស្វាយរៀង «វាមិនដែលមានត្រីបក ៥»។
វាជារឿងត្រឹមត្រូវព្រោះអ្នករាយការណ៍ជូនសម្តេច ខុសការពិត។ បើខ្ញុំចាំមិនច្រឡំទេ នោះគឺមិនដែលគេវិភាគអំពីត្រីបក៥នោះទេ គឺធ្លាប់មាន «ត្រីបកទឹម ៣» និង «ត្រីបកទី ៤ អាចនឹងបក» តែប៉ុណ្ណោះ។
ការវិវត្តនៃស្ថានការណ៍នយោបាយ នៅកម្ពុជាពីមួយសម័យកាល ទៅមួយសម័យកាល សុទ្ធតែបានបង្កើនភាពស្មុគស្មាញឡើងៗ ជាពិសេសនៅសម័យកាលចុងក្រោយនេះ ដែលគេដឹងឮគ្រប់ៗគ្នាថា «សម័យឃ្លោកលិច អំបែងអណ្តែត» គឺមានភាពស្មុគស្មាញដូចទៅនឹងក្រឡាអុក សម្រាប់អ្នកមិនចេះលេងអុក ហើយមើលមិនយល់យ៉ាងដូច្នេះដែរ។
ប៉ុន្តែសម្រាប់ទស្សនៈខ្ញុំផ្ទាល់ យើងអាចចាត់ទុកល្បែងនយោបាយ ដែលតួអង្គនយោបាយ សំខាន់ៗកំពុងតែលេង នាពេលបច្ចុប្បន្ននេះ ទៅនឹងក្រឡាអុក «ប្រើត្រីបកទប់ទល់សេះទឹម»។ សម្រាប់មជ្ឈដ្ឋានអ្នកចេះលេងអុក មិនពិបាកយល់ទេ អ្វីទៅជាត្រីបក? អ្វីទៅជាសេះទឹម? ហើយកូនអុកទាំងពីរប្រភេទនេះ មានសារប្រយោជន៍បែបណា និងត្រូវដើរក្រឡារបៀបម៉េចនោះ។ ត្រីជាប្រភេទកូនអុក ដែលអ្នកលេងអុកទាំងពីរត្រូវមាន គឺចំនួន៨ស្មើគ្នា។
ដំបូងគ្រាន់តែជាកូនត្រីធម្មតា នៅពេលអ្នកលេងម្ខាងបានដើរកូនត្រី ពីក្រឡាទី ៣ របស់ខ្លួន ទៅដល់ក្រឡាទី៣សម្រាប់ដាក់កូនត្រី របស់អ្នកលេងម្ខាងទៀតនោះ កូនត្រីធម្មតា នឹងត្រូវក្លាយទៅជាកូនត្រីបក។ លក្ខណៈពិសេស របស់ត្រីបក គឺអាចប្រែពីដើរទៅមុខត្រង់ មកដើរខ្វែងក្រឡា ៤ ទិសទៅវិញ។ គេតែងតែប្រើវាដើម្បីដូរ ឬដេញ និងទប់ ឬបិទ ជាដើម។
ចំណែក កូនសេះវិញ ជាកូនអុកមួយប្រភេទ ដែលអាចដើរដោយលោតឆ្វេង ឬស្តាំ និងលោត មុខ ឬក្រោយ៣ក្រឡា ហើយកាលណាសេះនៅក្បែរគ្នា ២ គេហៅថាសេះទឹម។ ប្រសិទ្ធភាពរបស់វា គឺអាចការពារមិនឲ្យកូនអុកគូប្រកួតចូលក្បែរបានឡើយនៅខាងមុខ ៨ ក្រឡា និងខាងក្រោយ៨ក្រឡា ហើយភាគច្រើនគេប្រើដើម្បីបំបែក បំភ័យដល់ក្រឡាអុកភាគីម្ខាងទៀត និងជួនកាល គេក៏ប្រើសម្រាប់ ដូរ ឬដេញផងដែរ។
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In my guess, CNRP is still obtaining many means to handling political negotiations. If there is no progress on demand for change on NEC, the attendance on the first National Assembly Convention might be shamefully missed the 55 elected members. Intensifying to the existing peaceful mass demonstration, the taking over national assembly by the CNRP alone, or the power share as a hybrid opposition within the winning constituencies/provinces, all are considered effective mechanism for genuine reform and change.
Thomas Hobbs on his book of “The Leviathan” critically narrated the “state of nature”, “divine leadership” and “monarchy” as the type of government operated by the absolute and divine King. Almost 500 years now that his theory has still being embedded in Cambodia and I am keen to comment on it while the King of Cambodia: Preah Bat Norodom Sihamuni invited the top leaders of CPP and CNRP to the meeting to resolve the political deadlock caused by the recent National Election on July 28th, 2013.
Watching TVK’s video clip of shorter than 20 minutes, the meeting is about listening to the King’s letter orally read by him with an unobstructed and unnatural tone. After that, the King handed the letter to both top leaders to invite them for the first session of national assembly. This scene surely pleased Premier Hun Sen but displeased Sam Rainsy, at an incalculable level.
The Fight for People Demand and the Confrontation with the Leviathan
At the present, Cambodia has faced with the dilemma of two groups of people: the change challengers and the fans of the divinity. The election day and the subsequent days after the election roaming up to now, the cohort of youths and mass population have come out to the street to support CNRP without fear and reluctant in their expedition for change. As the matter of fact, the increase of seats of CNRP and the crowd joining with the peaceful mass demonstration manifest the truth of non-stopped challenging. The crowd is the message for civility, liberty and rights.
But for the King who has been regarded as divine by the Cambodian people issued a letter on August 30th to appeal to all Cambodian compatriots to respect the existing mechanism of NEC according to the National Constitution in which analyst posed suspect on the inconsistent letter issued on August 7th that advised both rivals to negotiate and settle down conflict peacefully. Latter on, the King issued letter to support NEC to announce the election result as mandated on its schedule. Subsequently, this face to face meeting is to pre-arrange for the King’s call for the first convention of the National Assembly on September 23rd. as mandated by the NEC mechanism.
This trend is moving reversely to the demand of the CNRP that has continuously called for the not-free and not-fair election conducted by the NEC since before and after the election. CNRP has repeatedly called for the delay of result announcement, but no one care! Now, CNRP is likely speechless as the King will convene the first National Assembly and handed the invitation letter by televising it to his people entire the country. The puzzling question is that why NEC is seen so protective especially by the divine King? Why the demand of CNRP which is representing “change challengers or civility” is not on the eye of the King?
CNRP’s leadership is going to face tough decision making as one is their challenging supporters and another is their respectful divine King. At this crossroad, politics is about “survival” and I hope it is not the “survival of the fittest” described by Darwin. For Premier Hun Sen, he is likely happy with the provision by this power of divinity in the meantime that Sam Rainsy can tell the reporters only that “meeting today is no no, nothing”.
Futurist’s Thought on the Future Monarch of Cambodia
Many observers and writers have said the same tune that the popularity and the important role of the King of Cambodia is on the rim of decline. This inclination is possibly caused by the increase in civility and respectful neutrality of the King especially during the occurring conflicts is not practical. Different from the King Father: Preah Bath Dhammakod, his presence in China is in China; no interacting letters were endorsed in Cambodia. While the King was absent, the substitute(s) can hold to power and authorize decision making vertically.
But this time, observing from letter issued on August 30th, 2013 till now, the respectful neutrality has been gradually in a loophole. As the message of the CNRP has greatly outreached to the bottom line Cambodian people on the bad credibility of the existing NEC and calling for the creation of independent co-investigator; the mediation effort of the King is to push all parties to accept the existing NEC.
What will happen NEXT?
No one know exactly what is happening NEXT because it is the myth of the politics. It is not a divine predestine but a human-oriented opportunity. The calling for mass demonstration by the CNRP on 15-16-17 of September shall be in business as usual. But to keep the flame alive on the prospect of change might be not on motion within the demonstrators. It might be on a set of classroom to instruct them about the exercise of civil rights and liberty. But it is very useful for the component of democracy that people “must be able to freely express themselves and exercise their rights without limit”, and importantly it will advocate for broader concept of “well-informed citizens”.