What is happening to the 7 January 2018?

Synopsis:

Amid political stunt of cracking down on Cambodia’s democracy to increase the authoritarian leadership, the new episode of cold war politics in Cambodia has been rewritten to centralize a personal cult of dictatorial behaviour. After exiling Sam Rainsy and jailing Kem Sokha, the dissolution of CNRP was completed; the version of colour revolution and the personal cult narrative are made. But there are something dangerous over there inevitably.

Deadly slope ahead:

Cambodia Governance Dr. Lao Different from the cold war when King Sihanouk allied with China to combat against USA as well as Vietnam allied with Russia to combat against both China and USA, Hun Sen has faced a more deadly bumpy road under current free market political economy. Pol Pot who was spearheaded by China was very disappointing when China didn’t stop Vietnam from invading Cambodia to stop their brutal rule in January 7, 1979. China didn’t care how much Vietnamese conspiracy was strongly built within the Khmer Rouge organization; China has cared only to control them both, Vietnam and Cambodia. Now, with Hun Sen’s administration cracking down a viable political party CNRP that could neutralize brutality in Cambodia, only China has come out to support with promising millions of dollar in aides including releasing a statement to guarantee free and fair election although China has no free and fair election in its country.

The tide of resistance from both domestic forces and international forces will firmly and increasingly position Hun Sen into China’s armpit. But like Pol Pot, China’s interest is first. USA and China cannot retreat themselves from the bonding of free market benefits. If the election will be conducted without the participation of CNRP, the deadly game will be inevitably exploded.

New episode is rewritten:

Cold-War-Map-coloredThis year, the narrative of January 7 is purely boosting Hun Sen as the key actor. The clip was made in English subtitling aiming to lure international forces as well as to appeal voters’ support of CPP’s salvation version while the truth of history of this day is truly spitting on the face of all CPP’s circle elites. Resulting from 2013 national election, and the absence of celebration in January 7, 2014, the effort to light it up this year is remained more deeply suspicious among Cambodia’s voters. Khmer proverb says “don’t try to force someone to believe in you if you are not honestly telling the truth to them”, and “too much lie will defeat yourself”. And it is like what the Premier affirmed himself in the clip “don’t hope that brutality and cruelty can help you keep power. This lesson must be learned deeply. The more dictatorial and the more brutal, the sooner the collapse is.”

The Future Scenarios:

Selling old product of January 7, 1979 of the CPP has been hopeless by the observers as those believers in this day are representing around 30% among all eligible voters. With too overwhelming reversal political strategy of Hun Sen such as self-proclaimed hero, whitening out democratic force, politicizing every breadth of Cambodian society, family built-up wealth, pervasive corruptions, and praising this day of foreign invasion, denying UNTAC etc. shall distance Hun Sen and his regime far away from democratic election more and more. These forces are the extreme that can bring both dead and survival. But how could he hide himself by the shield of China alone?

CNRP has come a long way by its evolutionizing through the trend of the people, but it has less experience in adapting itself to “the survival of the fittest”. The latest tactic of pushing its boat along the stream could greatly benefit its investment, but it is also yielding an unpredictable result. To void this, this party must be more pragmatic in its action plan, long term plan, conviction, and workmanship. The existing system of political structure of Cambodia couldn’t permit free will and free mind of the democrats to exercise their potential fully. The pragmatists see these loopholes as the essential factors to adapt and change from within at the maximum. Now, all existing forces are not yet used. The domestic forces are like laid eggs waiting owner to pick and cook them. The international forces are partly used.

Read more on analysis of January 7 day….

2 Replies to “What is happening to the 7 January 2018?”

  1. Cher Monsieur S. SOPHOAN,

    Je vous souhaite une bonne et heureuse année 2018.
    Votre site que vous dirigez est extrêmement précieux en ce qui concerne les
    évolutions des situations de notre pays.
    Votre analyse touche au moment où le monde est divisé en deux blocs : Le communisme et le capitalisme, mais le problème
    khmer – nous les khmers – a suivi le courant de la disparition du bloc soviétique en 1989, et suivi par les accords de Paris en 1991.
    Aujourd’hui, le continent asiatique ( terrestre et non insulaire) demeure la Chine, ( entre 1936 – 1945, c’était le Japon).
    Le Cambodge demeure maintenant dans une voie de confirmation de ce que la France avait restauré l’ART KHMER.

    La Chine et le Dai-Viet avaient joué un jeu de dualisme à deux personnes.
    (Voir le Dualisme Autro-hongrois en Europe centrale [ Louis Eisenmann écrivait dans son ouvrage « … un programme de politique commerciale destiné à favoriser l’expansion économique de la monarchie. Ce programme impliquait une augmentation de la flotte austro-hongroise. .. », voir « ‘Le compromis austro-hongrois de 1867.Etude sur le dualisme’ par Louis Eisenmann, Sté nouvelle de Librairie et d’Edition, Paris,1904 ».]. Ces deux pays avaient fait disparaître la civilisation de CHAMPA. (figure 1 : frontières entre le Dai-Viet et le Champa).

    Après la disparition du Royaume de Champa, ces deux pays ne pouvaient plus avancer à cause de la colonisation ( la colonie de Cochinchine et le protectorat du Cambodge).
    Tout le long de cette période, il y avait la renaissance de l’art khmer. ( figure 2)
    Et maintenant , c’est votre analyse…

    Merci de votre analyse.

    Michel CHAI.

  2. Dear Sir S. SOPHOAN,

    I wish you a happy new year 2018.
    Your site that you run is extremely valuable when it comes to
    evolutions of the situations of our country.
    Your analysis touches on when the world is divided into two blocs: Communism and capitalism, but the problem
    Khmer – us Khmer – followed the current of the disappearance of the Soviet bloc in 1989, and followed by the Paris agreements in 1991.
    Today, the Asian continent (terrestrial and non-insular) remains China, (between 1936 – 1945, it was Japan).
    Cambodia is now on a path of confirmation that France has restored the ART KHMER.

    China and the Dai-Viet had played a game of dualism to two people.
    (See Autro-Hungarian Dualism in Central Europe [Louis Eisenmann wrote in his book “… a program of commercial policy designed to promote the economic expansion of the monarchy.This program involved an increase in the Austro-Hungarian fleet …” see “The Austro-Hungarian Compromise of 1867. A Study on Dualism” by Louis Eisenmann, New Company of Librairie et d’Edition, Paris, 1904. These two countries had eliminated the civilization of CHAMPA. 1: borders between Dai-Viet and Champa).

    After the disappearance of the Champa Kingdom, these two countries could no longer advance because of colonization (the colony of Cochin China and the protectorate of Cambodia).
    Throughout this period, there was the revival of Khmer art. (Figure 2)
    And now, this is your analysis …

    Thank you for your analysis.

    Michel CHAI

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